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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37930)	8/6/2002 2:20:52 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68680

Updated 8/5 for Tuesday's market. Key DOW Levels for 8/6 UP Above 8,100 DN Current Trend Upper Trend Line Dow continues downtrend, clear upper trend line formed. Watch for upside break at 8,100. From yesterday's commentary, "...Watch 8,350 up, and 8,200 down for direction...if the index were to break the 8,200 level to the downside, the index will likely trade lower and continue its downward trend..." The Dow was never able to rise above 8,350 today, rather, a downside break of 8,200 occurred, sending the index further in the current downtrend. However, looking at the 15 Minute Chart, you see that the Dow has now formed a clear upper trend line across the highs of the current three-day downmove. Since the upper trend line is quite well-formed, there is a great possibility for an upside break tomorrow at 8,100. An upside break of the trend line will likely lead to a nice move higher. Moreover, the index ended the day right around the 62% Retracement level, which implies that we could see an upside reversal. Watch 8,100 up, and 8,000 down tomorrow. Short Term Dow Short term, the Dow has good levels to watch for Tuesday's market. An upside break of 8,100 will likely lead to a move higher, while a downside break through 8,000 could extend the current downtrend. Watch this tight range for tomorrow. Medium Term Dow In the medium term, we are still Short from 8,515 and will move our stops down to 8,100 to lock in 415 points on the move. We will also enter Long above 8,100, with 25 point stops. Add to Shorts below 8,000. NASDAQ & OEX (SP 100) The NASDAQ and OEX continued steadily lower today, adding to their respective downtrends. However, both indexes have formed a clear upper trend line across the highs of the downtrend. Watch the upper trend line for an upside break tomorrow. * Summary The Dow extended the downtrend to three days today, as it shed another 270 points in the session. However, the index has now formed a clear upper trend line that we will watch tomorrow for an upside break at 8,100. We are still Short from 8,515, with stops at 8,100. Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading.. Ed Downs edowns@nirvsys.com with assistance from.. signalwatch.com