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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (4646)	8/6/2002 7:37:10 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95530

scott. the middle paragraph in your post was superb. expanding it a little further, people who compare today's valuations with previous troughs miss the point that the future for these companies is not as bright as it was at other troughs. consequently, the stocks don't even deserve a valuation comparable to those times. It is not that the companies won't prosper in the future. they will. but will they ever go back to the bubble days? the answer is no.

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (4646)	8/6/2002 8:21:24 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

>> subsequent to a decade of unbridled demand for increasingly powerful cpu processing capacity, a ceiling has been reached Scott, Anecdotally, I'll tell you that even in these troubled economic times, last week I bought a replacement computer for my home: a 1.8 GHz to replace a 300 Mhz. The reason is not frivolity, but simply that old computers are too slow to run the new applications. At work, I also stopped using my old Dell notebook even though there is nothing wrong with it, and bought 2 new Dell notebooks as replacement. Also for reasons of speed and features. You cannot even give the old computers away to schools or churches. When voice and imaging applications become more popular, even more processing power and memory will be needed. Sarmad

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (4646)	8/6/2002 9:47:32 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

The collapse in the sector is a very direct response to horrible - and deteriorating - market conditions. My impression is that subsequent to a decade of unbridled demand for increasingly powerful cpu processing capacity, a ceiling has been reached and simply maintaining (not growing) this IC load does not justify the size of most sectors of the semiconductor industry. Good comment. I knew you could make great points without slamming those that don't agree with you. Keep it up! My belief is much of the growth is going to come from China. I've read they will be net importer of chips for many years just because they don't have the capital to expand fast enough to build their own fabs. As they industrialize, their 5% middle class might expand to 10% which would be like growing a whole US population of consumers. (roughly...) The next big driver is a 25 cent, 200 MHz Pentium running on a couple of batteries. That sort of power will all all sorts of productivity devices that we haven't even thought of. Perhpas get it up to 400 MHz and you can add voice recognition and have the little PC dedicated to single function devices... Cell phones that store your full address book and can display pictures of all the people in it... Perhaps you file photos with the names in the address book so you can easily retrieve them... via voice! Moore's Law works both ways... you can go faster and faster or you can do the same for less. I think the real drivers will be "the same for less" functions that you get from really cheap computing power. Kirk

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (4646)	8/6/2002 9:52:01 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95530

Scott, <<My impression is that subsequent to a decade of unbridled demand for increasingly powerful cpu processing capacity, a ceiling has been reached...>> I can't agree with your sentiments here about a "ceiling has been reached". At the moment, business has pulled in their horns on capital spending, but IMO they will be back. The longer they wait to upgrade and expand, the higher will be the demand when they do decide to "loosen the purse strings". In the last 20 years, business and personal users have come a long way through the use of semiconductor and computer technology, but I personally think there is much further to go. Take my own case for example. I have had 2 cell phones in the family for some time but recently I retired those and bought 4 new cell phones with better features and performance. I also purchased, a couple of months ago, a new laptop computer with a 1.8Mhz Pentium IV chip to "add" to my home computing network. Note I did not replace any computers. Also, I need to upgrade the other existing computers in my home network, but I am waiting for the "market" to go up.<gg> Don