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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Suresh who wrote (37936)	8/6/2002 11:04:44 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68880

Hi Suresh, I am not saying the market will not re-bound, just that it will be stuck in a very low growth or no growth state for a decade or more. The best comparsion may be the market bubble in the 60's. That is the last time the average household held large amounts of stocks. The resulting recession forced a lot a people out of the market. They did not come back to any great extend to the 1990's, when we got the current bubble. I would expect that we rally at some point from this artifically low level. Given the number of companies trading below cash, this can't go one forever. On the flip side a risk premium is now being built into the US market by foreign investors. That premium will remain for years if not decades. Part of the US markets appeal was the fact that it was perceived as secure in comparison to other exchanges. That perception is gone and what the Bush administration is doing is not doing much to asage the fears. I am not sure there is much they can do.