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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (4649)	8/6/2002 12:23:19 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95536

Donald/Kirk/Sarmad - The New York Times is reporting today that the 2+ year decline in the NASDAQ (76.1%) is the 3rd worst of any market EVER in the U.S. (#1: 89.1%, DJIA 10/29 -> 7/32; #2 86.2% S&P 500 10/29 -> 6/32). Thus while I wish Sarmad's buying habits were representative, the market synonymous with technology is telling us that some sort of epoch-making change is occurring, a change that scandal-reverberations can only partially explain. Others have claimed that the simple act of placing the NASDAQ in this context and invoking such bombastic statements regarding the implications of this swoon are a sure sign we're at a nadir (a comment that was directed at yours truly ~500 points ago). There is a large kernel of historical truth to that. However, the tone of 90% of the posts on this thread is consistent with the sarcasm, 'So you think time is different, eh?', in other words, IC stocks are in a eminently normal, albeit protracted, cyclical contraction and 'historical patterns' strongly suggest a turnaround soon. The inclusion of the stats at the beginning of this post was to set the foundation for the idea that, yes, maybe, just maybe, this time is indeed different. When the NASDAQ drops by far the most in its history, and since the bottom really is not in sight, there are (at least) yellow caution flags proliferating at such a rate they are obscuring the view. Twenty years elapsed before the Dow crossed its 1929 levels and the NASDAQ will probably require a similar time frame.