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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (4650)	8/6/2002 9:16:45 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

meanwhile, Lehman likes CYMI and doesn't like AMAT Cymer (CYMI / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros Raising our rating to Overweight, with a $47 price target. We believe the company should be able to outperform its peers over the next year, as CYMI will exercise its competitive advantage in the excimer laser market. Applied Materials (AMAT / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros We are moving to a more cautious Equal-weight rating, as the 2003 consensus estimate appears aggressive, given the current order visibility. Our price target is $27 per share.

To: orkrious who wrote (4650)	8/6/2002 9:21:46 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

ork, We have to keep in mind the cyclical nature of this industry. Boom to bust to boom. It would do the sector good to never see those past growth rates again because they cause the bust. Overcapacity brings the slowdown, the slowdown brings caution and reduced spending. Eventually, the caution gets too extreme and before you know it, voila, we get increased demand. We are in another cycle and never, say never...

To: orkrious who wrote (4650)	8/6/2002 9:30:47 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 95530

. but they make more chips per wafer now and per unit of AMAT equipment. This has been the case for every cycle, but the profits and revenues have continued to grow at about the same rate. 200mm increased chips per wafer the same as 300mm is doing right now, and yet the industry did not hurt for it. I sincerely do not see what your concern is. Quite honestly, I am baffled. these companies will never see their past growth rates again. I heard the same argument by Bears in '96 and '98......the fact of the matter is that this industry either builds way too much or cuts back capacity much more than is necessary. We are now witnessing the latter, with the former to inevitably follow at some point. One of the largest downturns will probably have one of the greatest upturns to follow since the downside and the upside are usually highly correlated. There is absolutely no reason to believe that this time it will be otherwise. Betting that is will be otherwise is a bet against what has happened 100% of the time historically.....not a bet I would take:-)