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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (4698)	8/6/2002 12:48:29 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

What happens IF ...if the muslim world moves closer to democracy and uses even more of it's energy to engage in global commerce instead of global terrorism? ...if China continues moving towards a more capitalistic economic stance? ...if the low interest rates in the US start generating moderate inflation? ...if the downturn in corporate spending eases in the 2nd half of 2002 and companies budget higher capital equipment expenditures in 2003? ...if energy prices start to fall, reducing the "energy tax"? ...if the CEO's who are seeing a moderate recovery in the semiconductor segment are correct and that it's just taking longer than expected for demand to ramp? ...if we get additional fiscal stimulus from the FED and from the Treasury department? ...if people realize that there have ALWAYS been accounting scandals on Wall St. and that these latest scams are really nothing new? ...if people continue to pour (or should I say "POOR" vbg) a significant % of their regular incomes into 401Ks and other investment/retirement vehicles? ...if the current administration comes out with a significant outline for reducing the current deficit spending using tax reform and select spending cuts? While there are plenty of things to worry about, there are plenty of things that can happen which would ease the pain out there.

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (4698)	8/6/2002 1:40:57 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 95546

Twenty years elapsed before the Dow crossed its 1929 levels and the NASDAQ will probably require a similar time frame. Yes, but some of us were selling or taking profits out far, far before the top. I think I was about 50% too early and I was getting ready to take another batch out after another double when the market rolled over. I was expecting a 30 or 40% correction, not the huge one we got... thank the economy and crooked CEOs and the Taliban for the perfect storm. As Cary says, nobody gets all the tops and bottoms, but if you have realistic targets and scale in, you can make money on the cycles. I still like the long term so I only "trade" maybe 20% of a long, core position.. that is still up HUGE from where I bought. I had a large tech position cut in half (or more) in 1987 and it didn't regain old highs until 1994 for some stocks (IBM and HP were my main holdings). There was still great money to be made by dollar cost averaging into HP and IBM long before they hit bottom or reached their old highs.