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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2115)	8/6/2002 6:54:35 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

There is been quite a bit of discussion about AMAT's prospects going forward. FWIW here is what I consider to be a likely scenario: Calendar Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003E 2004E Industry Capex 27.5 31.8 58.9 38.5 31 37.2 46.5 Capex Growth % - 15.6 85.2 -34.6 -19.5 20.0 25.0 AMAT sales 4 5.09 9.56 7.34 4.88 5.95 7.9 AMAT capex % 14.5 16.0 16.2 19.1 15.7 16.0 17.0 AMAT EPS - 0.44 1.20 0.59 0.20 0.50 0.70 Based on an EPS of 0.70 in 2004 and a P/E of 20 we get a 2004 valuation of $14.00/share. Discount back to current at 10% today's valuation is $11.57.