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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (4710)	8/7/2002 9:06:59 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95487

HI G, We're looking good here. This looks like the first case of a good response to good to weak news on a tech leader. CSCO is up AH and in the premarket.This will put a crack in the bears cockiness. Doesn't mean they won't be right again but I think it marks the beginning of a sideways market. During sideways markets the next thing to expect is the final shakeout.Some stocks endure them others are already strong enough to not have them. I think this is really good. I think RtS has nailed it with his SOX chart: stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20021231][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iub14!uk14!ul14!lp14,3,3!lf!lc20!lah12,26,9] Longterm uptrend connecting the 138.98 low and 182.59 lows projects right up to a week before last friday and mondays low touched ,violated and now bounced. If we all agree that 99-00 were overachievers times(duh) then we can draw a parallell line connecting the tops of:303.85 and 405.48. This should give us an upward target of around 800. Over time this trend line will continue to display the megatrend of IC nonstop growth.The digitization of data will be relentless.This is assured to an even greater degree by the recent economies inability to grow topline revenue. Web based services have proven to be tremendous cost cutters.In a world of no topline revenue growth, the mantra of the future will be cost cutting and bottom line growth thru the digitization of data (elimination of people).This database management will result in web based applications becoming less custom and much cheaper for smaller firms to incorporate. A wave 2 of networks and databases that will crowd the internet's highways of glass.This growth won't be fast - as the venture funded bubble growth. Most importantly it will be economically justified growth based on savings.This type of growth will be enamorred by all "good managements". Slow but solid - it doesn't get any better. The shorts will win a couple more battles - but I believe the tide change has occurred.Soon the waves will lap upon our stranded boats again. If we get a final shakeout on the companies who have adfjusted to this downturn and reached breakeven/profitability the quickest,it will be the last gift. This will be the most perfect time to be aggressive and buy value. Thanks for your great steadfast support in these difficult times - I think we made it - gulp. Bob