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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2118)	8/7/2002 8:48:15 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Hi Brian. I am quite serious about capex and AMAT's market share as well as my perception of the "value" of AMAT's stock. However, I made no prediction of AMAT's share price nor did I suggest that this stock/sector is dead money for the forseeable future and beyond. You suggest that predictions at this point are next to impossible yet you say that you see the future quite a bit different than I do. That sounds to me like a prediction. As far as predicting AMAT's share price, my only prediction is that it will be volatile with great opportunities to make money on both the long side and the short side. I don't really care which way it goes as long as I am on the right side of the trend.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2118)	8/7/2002 2:49:57 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Respond to of 25522

EDIT: see following post

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2118)	8/7/2002 2:51:01 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Respond to of 25522

You mention that I did not address IC spending. Here is the table with IC sales and growth rates added. I have also revised 2004 EPS to 0.80 to bring 2004 valuation to $16.00. sales in billions of $ Calendar Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003E 2004E Semi Sales 125.6 149.4 204.4 139 141.9 163.1 195.8 Sales Growth % - 18.9 36.8 -32.0 2.1 14.9 20.0 Capex/Rev % 21.9 21.3 28.8 27.7 21.8 22.8 23.7 Industry Capex 27.5 31.8 58.9 38.5 31 37.2 46.5 Capex Growth % - 15.6 85.2 -34.6 -19.5 20.0 25.0 AMAT sales 4.0 5.09 9.56 7.34 4.88 5.95 7.9 AMAT capex % 14.5 16.0 16.2 19.1 15.7 16.0 17.0 AMAT EPS - 0.44 1.20 0.59 0.20 0.50 0.80 I would be interested to read other views of the growth rate of IC sales. I think my predictions are reasonable as I have used an increasing growth rate of IC sales, capex/revenue and AMAT's % of capex. From 2003 to 2004 an IC sales increase of 20% yields a 33% increase in AMAT sales.