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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2123)	8/6/2002 9:53:49 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Brian, there was a triple spike in Fall '98 [use the same chart and change to 5 years]. I assume a double or triple spike amounts to a retest and gives a more solid bottom - but I don't know for sure. Gottfried

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2123)	8/7/2002 11:07:29 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 25522

Hi Brian, I think the double spike in VIX is indeed meaningful. It is more violent - there is more fear followed by more fear. Therefore it has been more successful in completing the process of moving stocks from weak holders to strong holders. This type of volatility ,as never before seen, builds technical strength in the possibility that this bottom is the final bottom. October of 98 bottomed on a Vix spike on Oct 8,1998 - Cohu bottomed 8 days later 10/16/98.It was a lone final shakeout.In today's market there was a lot more company of other stocks that also implemented a final shakeout. These abnormal shakes are to be expected after an abnormal top.Certainly 00 was a huge abnormal top. We should have good moments with doubt intermixed regularly. Big picture is profits grow slowly and reverse as these lower rates help recovery. Bob