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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37951)	8/7/2002 1:02:37 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69166

TECHNICAL RALLY! (IT’S UP TO CISCO WHETHER IT CONTINUES TOMORROW) By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) It was a stellar day for most of the day with the market gapping up on pre-opening futures being strongly higher. The market then paused, exploded to a secondary move and then went into a rising flag formation for most of the day. The market reached its peak with about an hour to go, and at that point we started a pullback consolidation that held till about 30 minutes to go, then the market got hit hard into the close. This was due to a combination of profit-taking and some cautious selling into the Cisco earnings coming out after the close. Net on the day the Dow was up 231 points, but some 130 off the high. The S&P was up 25 but closed 15 points off the high. The Nasdaq Composite was 20 points off the high but still was up 53, and the Nasdaq 100 closed at 902, up 45, but was as high as nearly 924. The indices may also have reacted to their overhead declining 40-day moving averages. When they reached there they started their sell-off. That added fuel to the fire on the downside. However, a little bit of late short covering in the last five minutes firmed prices up just a tad. Net on the day it was still a terrific day. The up/down volume and advance-declines technicals were very strong, despite the sell-off, with nearly 2400 up on New York and only 830 down. Up/down volume was 1.2 billion up, 260 million down. That’s about a 5-1 ratio. Nasdaq was similar, more like 24-10 advance-declines. Advancing volume was 1.3 billion, declining was 166 million, a very strong positive ratio there of 8 to 1. A review of my board showed that every stock I follow was up today, most of them up between 1 and 3 points, led by QLogic up 3.17 and at one point up 4 ½. Amgen was up another + 2, holding near the high end of the range for the day. Some other stocks of note were eBay up 1.92 and IBM up 1.91. It was a very broad advance today and I was very pleased with what I saw. The market backed off, as I said, dramatically and did not close well, and that was the one fly in the ointment for today. Tomorrow if Cisco’s earnings are good, I expect the market to rally back up. If not, we may come down hard again. We are obviously not out of the woods yet, and today may have been nothing more than another technical snap back rally. However, I was certainly expecting it and as a result thetechtrader.com web site had the most profitable day in its history, so I’m very pleased with that. Good trading! Harry