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To: augieboo who wrote (49320)8/7/2002 6:04:05 AM
From: Vitas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Boo, the analysis was designed to identify intermediate moves in the market

in a normal bull market it would be considered a BUY signal

the primary low would be July 24, and the retest August 5

this is very similar to the low of March 22, 2001 and the retest on April 4, 2001

the biggest structural problem is the fact that the 1 percent udv oscillator cracked the -80 level on July 19

in data since 1942 this has only happened twice, in 1969, where the oscillator ultimately bottomed at -176.8 five months later, and in 1973, where the oscillator bottomed at -168 seventeen months later

however, in those two situations the oscillator stopped at approx -100 temporarily, and we now stopped at -96.81 on July 24

I see enough power in the tick flow signal to get us to the upper bb by August expiration, as it did in April 2001

subject to change -g-

for more see:

Message 17769083