[madtrader]
Tue Aug 6, 5:06pm PDT BBH
Looking like a bull flag is forming on daily charts. Unless it can trade above last week's highs, it would be a bit pre-mature to get too excited. none.
[madtrader]
Tue Aug 6, 4:15pm PDT $DJI
$COMPX
Tomorrow will be a very interesting day. We have a bunch of "confusing" setup here today. Around the intraday peak today, both DJI and COMPX moved up to their 50% retracement level (July 31st high to yesterday's lows). Then we had a sharp selling off from intraday peaks, retracing 38% of the move from yesterday's low to today's high. This kind of move isn't all that uncommon. However, depending on how things pan out tomrrow, one can look at today's moves both ways. Recent rallies have been good short entries. Unless we can move higher than today's intraday high tomorrow, or start to establish some sort of trading range, today's peak would be a clear lower high. Of course, if CSCO can indeed ignite things (as after hours trades indicates), all of my concerns will be moot. none.
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[madtrader]
Tue Aug 6, 2:17pm PDT volume
Well, I guess I can't really count this as a follow through day. Maybe tomorrow. Although COMPX did go up with higher volume than yesterday, but it is still quite a bit below the 50 DMA. The DOW did move up with higher volume as well, but it came in just shy of 50 DMA. So, it is really unresolved. The CSCO earnings report is givng afterhours trades a lift, but I have no idea how much of this move gets translated into tomorrow's action. none.
[madtrader]
Tue Aug 6, 12:46pm PDT DIA
QQQ
Okay, this is fast and furious on the sell side. I got stopped out all of my remaining longs when COMPX traded below 1265. So I am back on the sidelines again. sold QQQ,DIA.
[madtrader]
Tue Aug 6, 12:33pm PDT DIA
QQQ
The TRIN readings on NASDAQ got down to 0.195, about as overbought as you can get intraday. Momentum sliding a bit as well. Added CSCO's earnings, I guess I will play chicken and lock in some gains here. sold 2/3 of QQQ and DIA longs.
[madtrader]
Tue Aug 6, 11:54am PDT $DJI
$COMPX
Starting a new leg up here on intraday moves. Since COMPX cleared 1260, the next pause level should be around 1300. DJI should go for 8500 still. I am still holding onto all of my longs. Depending on how momentum pans out, I will probably start to trim my position if and when they get to those levels. none.
[madtrader]
Tue Aug 6, 10:57am PDT Market
Just trying to sort out strength and weakness out there. As I expected, the strength is concentrated mostly around DJI type names. Before you say what! Let me lay my points out there. Sure, SOX and COMPX is having a bigger percentage move up right now. But the key isn't about percentage change from a lower level, but to see how much of lost ground a stock can recapture. COMPX, SOX and NDX are all stuck near their 38% retracement level (the down move from July 30th to yesterday's lows). While OEX,DJI have moved to their 50% retracement level. Most telling is BKX, it has already moved back to it's 62% retracement level. Based on these observations, I would still expect the financials to lead the way while semis lag. none.
[RumorDude]
Tue Aug 6, 9:37am PDT $VIX.X
While this could be the start of a major reversal in the vix's rise (which of course would be good for the equity markets), the uptrend channel is still in tact here as shown by this chart. One other interesting thing to note abou the major indexes is that this bounce is most certainly not RSI oversold inspired: it hadn't crossed the "30" trigger point many people use for determination of oversoldness. That makes todays move much more compelling to me. none
[RumorDude]
Tue Aug 6, 9:32am PDT $SPX.X
Well, not nearly as nice as the ~13 it was last night, but unbelievably still a 70% gain at ~5. I'll take these off the table at least for now until I see clear direction one way or another. Sell to close Aug 800 $SPX.X puts.
[madtrader]
Tue Aug 6, 9:01am PDT Volume
Both DJI and COMPX is on pace to exeed yesterday's volume. This is another step in the positive direction. I wasn't all that concerned about the decline last week, for that matter, I was happy to see shrinking volume coupled with the decline. I believe for those who are looking for a retest of sorts, or double bottom (at least for COMPX), you could not have asked for a better combination. High VIX, high volume with the initial bounce, then pull back with thin volume. If the rally holds up until the close, then this should be considered as a follow through day. none.
[RumorDude]
Tue Aug 6, 8:38am PDT $DJX.X
Intraday (5 min) shows a double top and it's rounding over. Watch for the 9/18 tick MA crossover to confirm/deny retreat none
[madtrader]
Tue Aug 6, 8:14am PDT $DXC
I have been suggesting for the last few days that the Dollar should act as a leading indicator, of course it has been behaving much better than stocks. I have also been talking about the importance of breaking the key resistance level of 108. Well, it did just that with a great deal of conviction today. 108 not only worked as a resistance level for the past month, it is also the 25% Fibonacci retracement level for the extended down move from Feb peaks to July lows. The move today also allowed the Dollar to move above the long downward regression channel (Feb to July moves). This is hugely important if you follow stocks. The Dollar peaked ahead of equities in Feb, it also has bottomed ahead of stocks. none.
[madtrader]
Tue Aug 6, 7:15am PDT $DJI
$COMPX
So far so good with the breakout of the falling wedge I mentioned yesterday. If you are a swing or day trader, watch for overhead resistance ahead. DJI has resistance around 8500, while COMPX needs to clear 1260. none.
[madtrader]
Tue Aug 6, 6:26am PDT $DJI
$COMPX
Since DJI broke above 8100, COMPX broke above 1250; both areas I suggested yesterday as reversal triggers. I am long here. long QQQ, DIA. |
