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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (17004)	8/7/2002 11:02:39 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Think POG is reacting to this further rate cut news. Let's see a 2% T- Bill backed by indebted Uncle Sam, or unencumbered gold? That's beginning to be a fair question to ask for many folks. Meanwhile back to the stock market scene. Put call ratio yesterday was .76. Rydex Nova/Ursa ratio barely shifted from .32 to .35. VIX is still 45. Then the shorts jumped right back into their puts (.90) this morning as soon as the rally faltered a little bit. You can follow intra day here: hit intra day volume: cboe.com Bears are just to aggressive, skepticism is too high. I'm sticking with the series of August naked puts written in mid-July. Going let 'em expire worthless. In fact might start writing a few of the Septembers here. Also upping the ante on energy. Implied volatility is sky high on the names I'm using: AFFX 103 CEGE 78 CRGN 103 HGSI 96 LGND 92 MDCO 84 MLNM 104 NPSP 95 AOL 84 ELY 61 L 83 NVDA 128 SFA 88 TIBX 95 VRSN 111 : good day to establish this one? DISH 99 Here are some short positions/% of float as of July 8: even higher now? Many of these companies trade at 2 times cash or less. SYNA 12.0% VRSN 12.7% SFA 11.3% OPMR 28.9% trades barely above cash NVDA 13.6% ELY 19.3% ELNK 7.5% AFFX 9.4% DISH 16.5% ICOS 7.1% CEGE 8.8% CRXA 9.0% ISIS 7.2% MDCO 6.7% NPSP 10.5% XMSR 22.6% Shorts better be right on these satellite radio companies, no escape if not. I think these companies will be HUGE stories over the next few years. SIRI 27.5% Good companies trading below or slightly above cash. AVAN IDEV ACTI KEYN SCMR CIEN CPST OPWV I bought SUNW this week at 3.60. This is the reverse of the mania where long longs bet on the greater fool to pay still higher. Here the shorts are betting on the greater fool to panic. I'd say that's already happened ($60 billion plus in equity fund liquidation sine early June) , and the bears are setting their own trap here. They've been just too aggressive and need their heads handed to them.