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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doppler who wrote (49355)	8/7/2002 11:02:10 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

No wiggle thoughts. We are trying hard to stay away from that. Just know where your stops are imo. Suffice to say that the bearish scenario is bad here as it sees us hitting out stride in a 'iii of 5' down.

To: Doppler who wrote (49355)	8/7/2002 11:46:16 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

A point I've been meaning to share with everyone. I know this is strictly in the realm of "Duh, common sense" but it's amazing how often a simple statement of common sense can help you learn something. We never know where the market is headed. It is absolutely impossible to predict market movements with 100% certainty. However, you can predict with certainty what you will do given a certain market movement. Think about it for a minute. You can't know what the market will do with certainty, but it is almost as valuable to know what you will do if the market does A or B. That's one of the reasons I find Elliot so valuable. It forces me to lay out scenarios. I pick a bullish scenario and a bearish scenario. I define what I will do if each scenario were to unfold. Then I assign them relative likelihoods based on Elliot, TA, sentiment, etc. As long as the mathematical expectation (ie sum the products of probability * outcome) is firmly in the positive camp, I know it is a good setup. That's why high probability setups with excellent, well-defined entries and exits are so important. BC