Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (4792)	8/7/2002 12:36:12 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

there is none better than Zeev at trading. however, since there is none better, none can emulate him and it's easy to get hurt trying.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (4792)	8/7/2002 12:41:35 PM
From: Jeff	Respond to of 30712

you did a good thing bud.....but as i have found out....you can lead a horse to water....but you can't make him drink it..... for a few years i have warned others of being a follower on the internet boards....so i showed them some simple t/a that anybody can learn real fast and help them make their own decisions.....its the things i learned not in a book.....but in the real world of watching the markets everyday for years.....its the stuff that really works....and its simple....its all the things i use here.... but i found out the hard way.....people are lazy....they don't want to put in the time to learn to better themselves.....so its just as easy to let someone do all the work and just follow them.... then when they fail....they have someone else to blame...it wasn't their fault....its all about taking the easy way.... anyway....i know my efforts have helped a few.....and it might change a few lives for the better....thats all that matters..... so don't worry about a few jerks.....<ggg>

To: ajtj99 who wrote (4792)	8/7/2002 1:03:46 PM
From: All Mtn Ski	Respond to of 30712

I think people are too lazy to learn or do their own DD, and if there is an easy way (Like listening blindly to someone else) they will take it. That is why it is the few that make money consistently and in all types of markets. Those are the people willing to work. Look at all the people that followed Ken Fisher and got in this past May at 1700. He has had to issue apology letters since, as his call was so BAD! I don't rely on anyone but myself, although I do gather as much independent information as possible, but it all gets filtered by my brain and thought processes for an decision. I have only myself to thank or blame for my success and failures, but since I have started listening to myself alone years ago, my results are more consistent and rewarding. <g> Keep up the good work aj! A-M-S

To: ajtj99 who wrote (4792)	8/7/2002 5:20:21 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 30712

responding to my posts in a wry manner, so I assume he's not happy hearing another point of view. I felt the same way. ng Stay here and at Velo's M

To: ajtj99 who wrote (4792)	8/7/2002 9:00:37 PM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

ajtj, IMHO, your conscience should be as clear as a newborn babe's. As for Zeev, I think I have figured out how to articulate the flaw in his thinking that you have been trying to get him to look at. As I understand it, his position goes more or less like this: The current bubble deflation can't be like the '29 crash, because: [a] the markets discount all known information and telegraph it via price action; and, back in 1929-'193x, the market was telegraphing the coming of the Great Depression; and, [c] had the markets not been telegraphing the Great Depression, the bear market would have been shorter and milder; and, [d] in today's society, the social "safety net" will prevent a recurrence of such a an event, (i.e., prevent Great Depression II); and, [e] the markets know this; and, [f] since the markets know that the social safety net will prevent Great Depression II, Great Depression II cannot be what they are telegraphing; THUS: The deflation of this bubble cannot possibly be "like" the deflation of the 1920s' bubble. It's all perfectly logical, but it fails because of premise [a]. It is true, (I think), that the market discounts, (and thus telegraphs via price action), everything it knows, but that doesn't mean it knows everything. Zeev's belief that the market telegraphed the Great Depression, (via the "Crash" and deflation of the bubble beginning in '29), seems to assume that the market knew the depression was coming. But I have seen him offer no evidence of this assertion other than post hoc ergo propter hoc, (as the prof used to say in Logic for Non-Majors), or in plain english, we had the crash, then we had the depression, thus the crash must have telegraphed the depression. If one accepts that the markets knew, in 1929, (or by 1932? at the latest), that the entire world was plunging into a depression so deep and so long that only a cataclysmic war of unimaginable proportions and carnage would bring us out of it, then one must agree with Zeev. I just don't credit the markets with THAT much foresight. I think the markets knew in 1929-1932 essentially what we know right now: there had been a bubble of theretofore untold proportions, with the excesses slopping over into many (most? all?) sectors of the economy, and the greed taking hold of pretty much the entire country, and that bubble was going flat, and that was going to be a stone-cold b*tch.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (4792)	8/7/2002 9:20:40 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

ajtj, I don't know why you think I responded to you in a wry manner, it surely was not the intent. I have delineated quite clearly a number of time "the "grand model" I am following and many more times the detailed model for the short term. The model has been wrong from time to time, and I have admitted that as well. But I am not buying the 1929 model, and if you ask for why, it is because I developed my own that does not follow the 1929 scenario, it follows a shortened 1966/82 scenario, it has since late 1999. That model kept me out of all the major declines (and no, I do not consider premature entries that "cost" me another 100 to 150 Naz point a major problem, the model has always been premature at major bottoms by a week to three weeks in the past). The end stages of these declines are always quite volatile, and by Jove, that is real fun. As for people losing money, even if you assume that people did nothing since July third (and I did change my stance to neutral after the July 5th run and its failure, to done the horns again at 1315) and just got in the Q, they are doing quite fine. However, all those that got out when I donned my bear suit on April 22nd, or even as late as May 15th and stayed out till July third (and many did), saved more than what they might have lost in the last month. Compare that to our "Friendly Bear" call to go into the energy group of the like of MIR on May 24th in this post: #reply-17514348. Zeev