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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnM who wrote (36360)8/7/2002 3:38:40 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
The Word That No One Dares Utter - But Crucial To The Coming War With Iraq

stevequayle.com

August 6, 2002
by Gordon Thomas

Preempt. The word is on a thousand tongues in a dozen capitals. You hear it as far apart as Beijing and Washington.

In the corridors of London’s Whitehall and in the halls of European power.

Not a day goes by without it being spoken, many times, in Israel’s defence headquarters, the Kirya, in Tel Aviv.

It can be heard in Aman, Damascus and Cairo – over and again. And, of course, in the very focus of the world, Saddam Hussein’s Baghdad.

Preempt. Will he strike first against the ever approaching war machine of the United States?

In war rooms around the Western world, the question has been honed down to one scenario.

Some time between now and the onset of the holy month of Ramadan, Iraq launches from its southern city of Iraq a scud missile. Its warhead is filled with one of the deadliest poisons on earth: VX nerve gas.

As it streaks through the desert night sky towards its target – the American military headquarters in Kuwait – three of Saddam’s armoured divisions roar out of Basra towards the Kuwaiti border. They have less than 40 miles to travel.

That is the preemptive scenario senior officers at America’s Central Command have warned President Bush could happen. Worse, they have told him that “at best there is only a 50/50 chance of preventing the Basra breakout from succeeding”.

Anthony Cordsman, a former director of Intelligence Assessment at the Pentagon and a ranking expert on Saddam’s potential tactics, told Globe-Intel:

“It will be most difficult to stop Iraq from entering Kuwait – the more so as Saddam is clearly ready to accept massive damage from our counter air strikes.”

While President Bush has rejected Saddam’s proposal to have a meeting with the head of the UN inspection team, the fact is that Bush also knows his planned assault on Iraq holds more dangers for him than he is publicly admitting.

There is the danger from Saddam’s estimated 40 tons of chemical and biological weapons.

There is the possibility that Iraq has sufficient nuclear material – obtained from North Korea – to create at least one “dirty bomb”.

There is the very real risk that Saddam will launch squadrons of his pilots in kamikaze attacks. Unlike their Japanese predecessors in World War Two, who often had some distance to fly before they reached their targets, Iraq’s suicide bombers are only minutes away from some of the 7,000 US troops already stationed in the broiling Kuwaiti desert. Many are in tent camps close to the Iraqi border.

While US forces have been inoculated against anthrax and are training in chemical/biological warfare suits they will have to wear all the time once hostilities start, the truth is that these precautions have reduced their fighting capability.

Preempt. The real danger is that Israel, sensing that the Basra breakout will also be the precursor to an attack on Tel Aviv, will launch its own preemptive assault.

John Pike, an analyst with the respected Global Security says that “Israel is a factor no one can factor in with certainty.”

Senior members of Israel’s own intelligence community have told Globe-Intel that should Iraq launch a bio/chemical attack against the country, then the retaliation will “almost certainly” include a suitable nuclear response.

Israel has over 200 nuclear weapons at its facility in the Negev Desert. In the past weeks, a number of weapons have been deployed to front-line Israeli Air Force squadrons.

Preempt. When could such at attack come? While Israel remains America’s closest strategic partner in the Middle East, it may, in the end, not follow any pre-planned battle plan Washington is preparing.

Tel Aviv sources Globe-Intel have spoken to say Bush’s rejection of Saddam’s invitation to discuss the idea of allowing UN weapons inspectors back into Iraq now makes war inevitable.

They predict it will come, in the words of one Mossad analyst, “sometime between early October and January 2003”.

The one certainty is that a preemptive Iraqi strike against Kuwait would inevitably wreck the battle plans now being put together for an all-out assault on Saddam.

“We would have to divert a huge number of troops, or even assemble another coalition to liberate Kuwait”, said a high-level Pentagon source.

There are other imponderables. What would Iran do? There is mounting evidence that it is building up its own nuclear capability. Washington has already warned Moscow about continuing to supply such materials to Teheran.

Then there is the role of China. Will it seize upon US preoccupation with Iraq to reinforce its own power base in Iran?

Syria and Egypt are also two problems that remain unresolved for Washington. While its leaders remain politically opposed to any attack on Iraq, its people might rebel and drive its hard-line military leaders to strike against Israel.

The only certainty is that the furnace summer heat may turn out to be the precursor to something ever fiercer in the Middle East.

globe-intel.net



To: JohnM who wrote (36360)8/7/2002 3:49:13 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
NEOCONS GO FOR THE GOLD

August 7, 2002
antiwar.com

You've really got to hand it to the neocons: they sure know how to conduct a bang-up propaganda campaign. The leak of a "briefing" to the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, which targeted the Saudis as the real locus of world terrorism, is all over the place: not only the Washington Post, but MSNBC, Fox News, the BBC, and out over the wires. The document, labeled "top secret" and "classified," according to Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, is described in the Post:

"A briefing given last month to a top Pentagon advisory board described Saudi Arabia as an enemy of the United States, and recommended that U.S. officials give it an ultimatum to stop backing terrorism or face seizure of its oil fields and its financial assets invested in the United States."

It's refreshing to see that the War Party is finally coming out of the closet, so to speak, with its real aims and ambitions. We knew that all the pious palaver about a "war on terrorism," and the export of "democracy," was just a lot of malarkey, but it's nice to have them come right out and say so. As I said all along, a war against the Saudis and the outright seizure of the Saudi oil fields is what the neocon-Big Oil-Bushian axis of aggression is really gunning for.

It's interesting to see that the conspiracy theory being pushed by the Rand Corp. briefing is quite similar to the vague mishmosh of arbitrary assertions and undocumented accusations circulating in the form of Forbidden Truth, a book by Jean-Charles Brisard and Guillaume Dasquie, and published by The Nation, which was aptly described by the Los Angeles Times as

"A dense, conspiracy-minded portrait of Saudi-dominated banks, companies and tycoons, all allegedly interconnected, that they maintain have helped fund Bin Laden's holy war."

The point of the book is that the Bush administration was supposedly appeasing the Taliban right up until the last moment: Brisard and Dasquie are essentially saying that the Bushies let 9/11 happen because of a "softness" on the Saudis. "Since the 18th century," Brisard and Dasquie aver, "Saudi Arabia, has been focused on conquering the world." The author of the controversial briefing, Laurent Murawiec, a Rand Corporation analyst, put the same thesis another way:

"'The Saudis are active at every level of the terror chain, from planners to financiers, from cadre to foot-soldier, from ideologist to cheerleader, Saudi Arabia supports our enemies and attacks our allies.' … A talking point attached to the last of 24 briefing slides went even further, describing Saudi Arabia as 'the kernel of evil, the prime mover, the most dangerous opponent' in the Middle East.'"

Remember how the Democrats went ballistic when the Saudis started raising the issue of a US military withdrawal from the Kingdom? Senator Joe Lieberman has gone so far as to declaim that a "theological iron curtain" has descended across the Middle East – and he doesn't mean Israel. The not-so-hidden subtext of all this is that the Democrats can always bring up the Bush family's links to Saudi oil interests. The killer is that the Democrats don't have to say a word….

What we're seeing, here, is a left-right squeeze play, with the Bushies in the middle. It is, in reality, a form of political blackmail, a warning shot fired over the bow – by the ostensibly Republican neocons, and not the Democrats.

What better way to blindside the Bushies than from within their own camp – that is, from the neocons, who have no party loyalty except to the War Party. If the Democrats will provide them with a bigger, bloodier war to fight – one in which more Arabs are likely to perish than in a piddling invasion of Iraq – well, then, why not?

Neoconservative foreign policy analyst Richard Perle, the chairman of the Defense Policy Board, wears many hats: he is widely known as a foreign policy academician, he appears on TV as a "former Reagan administration official," and is often treated in the media as having quasi-official status in the present administration. In a fascinating piece in The American Prospect on Perle, the one-man war propaganda machine, and his relations with the Bushies, Joshua Micah Marshall points out the dual role played by the man they call the "Prince of Darkness":

"So how is Perle able to play both sides of the street? One prerequisite is the continued acquiescence of Rumsfeld. 'I think Rumsfeld has loved this stuff,' says one of Perle's former Reagan-administration colleagues, though whether Rumsfeld's go-ahead for these rants is explicit or implicit is anyone's guess."

Rumsfeld, however, wants us to believe that he's plenty steamed up about this leak:

"Clearly, somebody decided that it was a good idea to take something that was that potentially controversial – I almost said inflammatory – and give it to a newspaper, even though the meeting was a classified meeting and a closed meeting of the Defense Policy Board."

The leak was "clearly harmful," he complained, and doesn't really represent the majority view of the policy board. I especially liked this Associated Press report of Rummy's displeasure:

"The defense secretary's harshest comments were aimed at those responsible for leaking the report. He says this probably came from someone who wanted to appear important."

But not really important, you see – or, at least, not important enough to be tracked down by requiring all members of the Defense Policy Board to submit to a polygraph test. If they can ask it of Congress, then why not demand it of the members of what was once a bureaucratic backwater and is now, apparently, the Mordor of the War Party?

It doesn't take a Sherlock Holmes to home in on the likeliest suspect in this latest case of "leaked" classified information: none other than the chairman of this phony Defense Policy "board," a man whose appointment to a sensitive position has been confirmed by no one. Perle was essentially sneaked in the back door of this administration, and has been allowed to run rampant ever since – and he and his fellow neocons are active on more than one front....

As the radical wing of the War Party sets the Saudis in its sights, they are also taking aim at King Abdullah of Jordan, who, incredibly, stands accused by the Jerusalem Post of being little more than Saddam's sock-puppet:

"The Bush administration has acquired evidence that Jordan's King Abdullah II, once a cornerstone of US policy against Iraq, is in fact working closely with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, according to senior political sources here."

"Working closely" – to do what? The article doesn't say, leaving the reader free to imagine the worst: poison gas? Chemical warfare? An Iraqi-Jordanian nuke?

"The sources declined to indicate the precise nature of the evidence, but they say it is damning and irrefutable."

Well, then, I guess that settles it. Who needs evidence – says the Jersusalem Post -- where Arabs are concerned? Just take our word for it.

In spite of the long history of US-Jordanian friendship, intimately bound up with the Hashemite monarchy, and loyal Jordanian cooperation with the US in rooting out Al Qaeda, not even the most pro-American ruler in the Middle East – arguably far more pro-American than Ariel Sharon – is immune to the anti-Arab smear campaign. The New York Sun dutifully ran the Jerusalem Post story verbatim on page one, and an editorial asking "Who Lost Jordan?":

"The report that the Jordanian king, Abdullah, is passing sensitive American intelligence material to Saddam Hussein, and that Abdullah recently accepted a gift of three Porsche automobiles from Saddam's son Uday, is enough to make our hair stand on end."

As we all know, that kind of hair action is caused by an excess of static electricity, and static is precisely what this kind of groundless accusation is designed to generate. While admitting that the sources were unnamed, as was the evidence, the Sun insists that we have reason to be suspicious:

"Given the history of close relations between the Hashemite Kingdom and the Central Intelligence Agency, it strikes us that some of the time the American Senate has been spending lately on devising reasons to delay liberating Iraq could be devoted more profitably to some oversight hearings on who lost Jordan."

I'll bet Jordanian links to the CIA aren't as close as the relationship between certain American media outlets and the Mossad, but let's not go there. Let's look, instead, at the pattern that is beginning to emerge. First, it was the media campaign against the Saudis, and now this crude attempt to smear King Abdullah: what we are witnessing is the latest chapter in an ongoing attempt to effect a radical turnabout in US policy. While American generals are in open revolt against the idea of taking on the entire Arab world, and occupying not only Iraq but also much of the Middle East, the neocons are mounting a counter-attack in the form of these not-so-mysterious "leaks" that just happen to slime our most prominent Arab allies.

Note the evolution of Bush's Middle East stance, from admonishing the Israelis and telling them they'd better withdraw from the West Bank, to what often seems like unconditional support for Israel's war of conquest. But it hasn't been enough for America's Likudniks, and their nutball "Christian Zionist" allies, who will never be satisfied until US foreign policy perfectly resembles Israel's – on a much grander scale.

I would also note a similar evolution of the "war on terrorism." In the beginning, it was Colin Powell who was telling us that the whole operation was to be tightly focused on eliminating Al Qaeda – the perpetrators of the 9/11 terrorist attack. It has taken the Bush administration less than a year to go off on a complete tangent. As we approach the first anniversary of the 9/11 horror, all linkage of US war aims to Al Qaeda – and to that morning in September – has been completely abandoned.

Instead, American policy has done a 180 degree turn, from assembling a broad coalition against Bin Ladenism within the Arab world to narrowing our allies to include only Israel, Turkey, and a few of the smaller Gulf sheikdoms. We don't hear much, these days, about Osama, except vague rumors spread by government officials that he's dead. Instead, we are treated to a daily drum-roll of alleged "threats" coming out of Baghdad, all of them about as solid as the accusations against the King of Jordan – and nearly all of them emanating from the same source.

We hear endless accusations about Saddam's alleged "weapons of mass destruction," but little about the direction these weapons are likely to be pointed in. New York is not threatened by devastation from Saddam's Scuds, and neither is Riyadh or Amman, but Tel Aviv is another matter. The idea that Iraq represents a threat to the US or any of its Arab neighbors is a joke. This point has been made by Jordan's Abdullah again and again, including during his recent visit to Washington, where he met with the President – which is why the War Party has decided that he has to go.

This new turn in US policy, away from a "war on terrorism" and toward a war against the entire Arab world, benefits one and only one country in the region, and that is Israel. The Bush administration has been slowly moving in this direction, but now the War Party is demanding a pick-up in the pace. As Israel gets ready to ethnically cleanse the occupied territores, and drive the Palestinians into Jordan, Sharon requires a pretext, or enough of a diversion so that the world can avert its eyes. After all, what will the conquest of the West Bank by the IDF seem like against the backdrop of a US seizure of Iraq, the Saudi peninsula, and no doubt a few hunks of Iran?



To: JohnM who wrote (36360)8/7/2002 8:46:16 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Respond to of 281500
 
I think Mark Steyn should be christened the Molly Ivins of the Right:

How about a little diversity of thought?

Mark Steyn
National Post


I was at an airport for two or three or nine hours the other day and so, having exhausted USA Today, The Pocatello Indicator, and Utah Bondage Contacts Monthly, I gave in and bought The New York Times. The news section had a profile of Colin Powell by Todd S. Purdum, who had been given special access to the Secretary of State. All seems to have gone swimmingly, except that evidently Mr. Purdum found it somewhat difficult to write while simultaneously hanging off the General's zipper:

"As one of the world's most admired celebrities for more than a decade, with approval ratings that rival President Bush's, Secretary Powell has special status -- and singular political value -- in a Republican administration supposedly eager to demonstrate its commitment to compassionate conservatism."

Any idea what that means? It's "compassionate" to make "one of the world's most admired celebrities" Secretary of State? And what's that "supposedly" doing in there? Is Todd saying that the Administration's "eagerness" to "demonstrate" its "commitment" is fake? That they're just pretending to be eager about demonstrating their commitment but in reality they'd rather be undemonstrative about their commitment? No matter. The point is Republican motives are always suspect. Whether it's the compassionate conservatism that's suspect or their commitment to it or their demonstration of their commitment or their eagerness to demonstrate it, it always helps to have a "supposedly" in there somewhere.

I must confess I'd initially confused Todd Purdum with his near namesake Edmund Purdom, who starred in The Student Prince (MGM, 1954) with his singing voice dubbed by Mario Lanza. Like Edmund, Todd has an uncanny ability to stand there open-mouthed while the old favourites just pour out effortlessly:

"Mr Powell's approach to almost all issues -- foreign or domestic -- is pragmatic and nonideological. He is internationalist, multilateralist and moderate. He has supported abortion rights and affirmative action and is a Republican, many supporters say, in no small measure because Republican officials mentored and promoted him for years."

So supporting "internationalism," "multilateralism," abortion and racial quotas means you're "moderate" and "nonideological"? And anyone who feels differently is an extreme ideologue? Absolutely. The New York Times is rarely so explicit, at least in its "news" pages, but the aim of a large swathe of the left is not to win the debate but to get it cancelled before it starts. You can do that in any number of ways -- busting up campus appearances by conservatives, "hate crimes" laws, Canada's ghastly human-rights commissions, the more "enlightened" court judgments, the EU's recent decision to criminalize "xenophobia," or merely, as the Times does, by declaring your side of every issue to be the "moderate" and "nonideological" position. As Elizabeth Nickson pointed out in her magnificent column on Friday, if you're a Minister of the Crown in Ottawa the preferred tactic for dealing with the mildest criticism is to denounce your opponents as Klansmen and Holocaust deniers. This is somewhat cruder, as befits Da Liddle Guy's style of government, but is in line with the general trend -- different tactics but the same aim: to rule certain issues beyond debate, and thus render the conservative position if not illegal than at any rate unmentionable.

Miss Nickson, in noting the number of right-wing bestsellers, also reminded me of why I loathe those small bookstores we're all supposed to prefer over the big-box impersonal chains. I used to date a gal in Burlington, Vermont. She was swell, but the one bookstore in that quintessential latte burg drove me nuts. There's a whole category of books they ought to call "Bestsellers That Are Entirely Unavailable In American College Towns": Rush, Dr. Laura, anything by anybody on Fox News. You might as well be asking for "One Hundred Great Yak Recipes From Bhutan" in the original Bhutanese. Actually, it's worse than that. You might as well be asking for "One Hundred Great Bhutanese Catamites Under Nine" for the looks you get if you enquire about any book on Ronald Reagan that doesn't assume he was an economic illiterate and nuke-crazy airhead.

Fortunately, in Burlington, Barnes & Noble opened up on the edge of town, and the small personal bookstore attuned to the needs of its customers closed down almost immediately. So now, instead of the allegedly charmingly quirky independent bookseller with his idiosyncratic tastes, everything's ordered by some computer in New Mexico or Bangladesh or wherever the hell it is. Result: not only is the gay and lesbian section much bigger but you can get Rush and Dr. Laura, too.

That's all I ask, really. That the left stop pretending all these things have been settled, and anyone who disagrees is a racist sexist homophobe hater. Take Todd Purdum and his Powell paean. Now I'm sure Todd sincerely believes his views on everything are really non-partisan, and it's only the other side who are being partisan. But the majority of Americans are not "internationalist" or "multilateral," at least not if that means letting Kofi Annan and the EU have a veto on the next moves in the war of terror. The majority of Americans are opposed to racial preferences. They're about evenly divided on abortion in general, but 86% oppose third-trimester abortion, and 82% favour letting the parents know before allowing a minor to have an abortion.

Yet if you're a Bush judicial nominee who's ruled in favour of parental notification you'll be denounced by Planned Parenthood as an "anti-choice extremist." It's you and the rest of your 82% who are extremist and ideological and hopelessly out of step with the moderate, nonideological, pragmatic 18%. Amazingly, this line -- attacking the messenger not the message -- works very well for the left north and south of the border and across most of western Europe. That's why conservatives so often have winning issues without actually winning.

Meanwhile, the left has an hilarious bumper sticker: "Celebrate Diversity." In the newsrooms of America, they celebrate diversity of race, diversity of gender, diversity of orientation, diversity of everything except the only diversity that matters: diversity of thought.

nationalpost.com{6B817173-70BF-4E5E-8E8F-D243F23A703A}