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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4772)	8/7/2002 10:43:56 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95503

Kirk: "A 40% drop is normal in Bay Area real estate..." Cary: I have lived in the Bay Area '73-'74, '76-present, and I think 40% is too high. I think 20-25% is closer. Location, Location, location. 25% for MenloPark/Palo Alto/Los Altos. I bought my house 23% off what I thought was peak in 1994 and I think they went another 5 or 10% lower to bottom in 1995. My boss at the time bought a lot in Almaden Valley that was 40% off the peak where he built one of those Fill the 8500 sq ft lot with a 3500 sq ft home and a swimming pool... I know it was 40% (or 50%... I actually forget) as it was a foreclosure and so there was a first buyer at the peak. Homes "out there" really fell much more than those "in close". Maybe the lots declined more than the homes... but most there wanted new so selling an older one... Anyway, a friend of a friend had an offer for $6M for a home in Palo Alto which they refused in 2000 and they later put it on the market for $4M last yr.. that is down 33% and the SJ Merc on the weekens shows some homes have fallen as much as 60%... but these are the really high end homes. I think 20 to 40% is a good range... 25% is "typical" but you don't want to panic should you see more, especially with today's low interest rates. Kirk