Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grommit who wrote (15101)	8/8/2002 2:48:10 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78704

SGR - So did I @14.05. Merrill says worst case scenario if all below investment grade contracts were cancelled they would still make $2 in 03. This is comparable to prior trough valuations over the last decade. Purchases from similar troughs have typically produced better than a double over the following year. I danced in and out of this flat in the mid 30's. 1st position since. There's price risk from further negative newsflow...contract cancellations, so even if substantially undervalued it could become more so...a phenomenon not exactly unknown to participants on this board.

To: Grommit who wrote (15101)	8/8/2002 6:05:45 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78704

I keep looking but passing on SGR. I could see where they might earn $2.00/sh in '03 worst case, or maybe $2.30+ if one takes out only those projects by subtiers like Mirant. That still makes the p/e attractive. However, at lows in the past, SGR has sold for p/e's 5 or 6 times earnings. And that was when ltd was much lower (d/e ratios lower too). OTOH, in years past SGR has also inevitably sold at p/e's higher than current, so it's possible, maybe likely, that people buying today will have a very good opportunity to get out with a profit. For me, I'm waiting to see if I can get SGR at lower price if/when any other cancellations are announced. Paul Senior Jmo. And I've been wrong many, many times.

To: Grommit who wrote (15101)	8/8/2002 11:30:38 PM
From: - with a K	Respond to of 78704

SGR >> Not pleased with all the insider selling in April, because I bought a small amount in March. Shaw in recent Forbes article on insider buying. Snip: "We set our screens to find companies where insider stock purchases have outnumbered sales in the last six months. To tighten the list, we restricted our search to companies with market capitalizations greater than $500 million, latest 12-month price-to-earnings ratios of 25 or less, and PSRs beneath their five-year averages. Estimated next 12-month P/Es for this group average just 11. Headquartered in Baton Rouge, La., Shaw Group (nyse: SGR - news - people ) is the top U.S. manufacturer of prefabricated piping systems for utilities and other customers in the power industry; the company is also a provider of related engineering and consulting services. In addition, Shaw has a significant presence abroad, such as its recent joint-venture agreement with Yangzi Petrochemical to build a pipe-fabrication facility in China. Although some insiders at the Shaw Group sold off 20,000 shares in recent months, insider buying was stronger, with 142,000 shares purchased. Shaw Group's stock, down 41% from its 52-week high, looks like a bargain. Analysts reporting to Thomson Financial/IBES predict that the company will earn $2.92 per share over the next 12 months, giving the stock a 12-month forward estimated P/E of just 7. Based on that number, and a long-term earnings growth estimate of 20% (annualized), the stock's price-to-earnings growth ratio, or PEG, comes in at just 0.4. PEGs under 1 are generally deemed a sign of a cheap stock." ********************************************* SGR looks interesting to me, too, at this low price. Here's a nice write up Christopher did earlier on the NAIC thread: Message 16980176

To: Grommit who wrote (15101)	8/9/2002 11:31:34 AM
From: Allen Furlan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78704

Grommit,SGR, that makes three for the money. I wonder if Paul Senior is still tracking 3 baggers on the thread. I bought right after first bad new at 16 net of a August 17.5 call. More interesting is the convertible bond. This LYON with a 05/2004 put at 683.61 is selling in low 500s. Put can be in stock or cash but stock is at market price when put.

To: Grommit who wrote (15101)	8/20/2002 8:28:27 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78704

SGR: Merrill cut 03 est from 2.76 to 2.50, but stands by 'worst case' est of 2.00 [If all energy projects with credit impaired entities went away]. Noted that the market may be missing that only 20% of revenues are tied to power cycle...nearly half the backlog is US gov't environmental contracts. Still strongly supportive based on valuation being at decade lows. Sometimes an estimate drop can cause a panic drop...doubt that will occurr today, but if it does, I'll add.