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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mt_mike who wrote (4179)	8/8/2002 12:30:49 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

we could get a semblance of a flush this autumn when economy slows further, earnings disappoint, and the public finally figures out that for the third straight year, we dont have the fabled 2ndHalf Recovery this has become a joke refrain I truly believe that the Strong Dollar will come close to destroying this country's economy and banking system the list of destroyed elements is growing I am convinced that 95-97% of Americans have absolutely no idea what is wrong they have heard that a strong dollar is good but I could cite 25 destructive consequences and not one good effect, unless you count a stock bubble which afforded a brief opportunity to cash out and purchase an NBA basketball team a big flush this autumn, followed by a long drawn-out slow bleed we will get the flush, Mikey the S&P, FTSE, DAX all are indicating loudly very very loudly then after the bleed is underway, TBond rates will rise mysteriously this will be the biggest point of confusion we will have seen in 20 years of financial markets it will happen from foreign lost confidence in America it will come from dollar selling abroad, en masse it will crater real estate and lead to a second flush in about 12-18 months I expect the Dow to wind its way down below 4000 in a couple years ALL BUBBLES WILL BE KILLED two remain: Treasurys and Real Estate / jim

To: mt_mike who wrote (4179)	8/8/2002 1:31:13 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

a critical stat that went overlooked... import prices up I have yet to see it in print but on Tuesday, I saw on CNBC that... import prices were up 0.4% in June export prices were up 0.3% in June annualize the import stat to get 5% price inflation what struck me as curious was the export price rise unit labor costs are up only slightly health costs continue up steadily and materials cost are up slightly we may be seeing the first signs of import price inflation annualized at 5% that is not piddly, but it is offset by lower domestic costs / jim