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Strategies & Market Trends : Take the Money and Run -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (14163)	8/8/2002 4:15:53 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Respond to of 17639

oops...sorry, i missed it.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (14163)	8/8/2002 4:34:47 PM
From: Augustus Gloop	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17639

I just wanted to say I'm sorry to all the shorts. I know the last few days have been difficult and its compounded by all the bulls coming out and talking up the market. I still believe in my heart that the size of this rally is due in large part to the extensive dip we had in July. IMO this is nothing more than a bear rally after a heated sell-off. Even if the dow prints a breakout at 8800 I believe this rally is suspect as it has no fundamental underpinnings. It seems to me that we have seen many stocks print double top breaks only to fail soon thereafter. While that doesn't help much in your decision making I still believe that you guys are right. You may have to change your scope in terms of timing (from aug to sept) but I don't think we are seeing a trend change that has any staying power. Maybe I'm all wet but I have a hard time getting too excited about this rally. One of the main things pushing this has been a big move in the sox. If I recall correctly it would have to print 340 for a real break and even there I don't view that as a long term thing. I believe the sox will settle between 200-250 in the not too distant future. That said I think we need to come to a few realizations. First of all, the economy is neither as good as it seemed in 1999 nor is it as bad as it seems now. While we who trade on a daily basis feel like this is damn near a depression that is only because of our proximity to the equity markets. For MOST Americans this is still just a bump in the road. Because we are watching so close we tend to get overly optimistic or pessimistic. As a result I think we need to start viewing the wild moves much like we did in March of 2000. That was the first sign of trouble and it took some time to play out. I think the same is true here. These are the first signs of a potential break to the upside but like 2000 this too will take time to play out. With that in mind I would encourage people to keep their current views on the market but be willing to change directions in the coming months. The sox will be one of our best indicators and earliest performers once we start moving higher. I think this jump is just a sucker rally before we start to decline again but I don't think we are all that far away from a bottom when you base it on time (not index points). Watch those chip stocks close and keep them on radar as I believe they will be among the first to pull out and move higher. Again....sorry the past few days hurt so many of you folks....I'm pulling for ya