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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (4152)	8/9/2002 2:36:22 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4710

that buying today will look like a huge blunder. so far, so good <lol>

To: The Ox who wrote (4152)	8/12/2002 2:34:02 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 4710

Hi MH, I've invested in telecom equip companies (of which VTSS is currently once removed) since the mid '80s. The cycles are vicious with boom/bust moves that make almost anything else look minor. I think the roots are in the original ATT system prior to the break-up. At that time the entire system's spending upon capital equipment was pretty much centralized. The business was less "world wide" at that time as well. When the baby Bells were born, it seems their purchasing depts (or maybe their B.O.D.s) were all still functioning on the same biorhythms. They were all buying or were canceling and delaying orders pretty much at the same time. DSC Communications was my first investment in this area. It's stock would dump to below $5 a share and then soar to near $20 on the next cycle. Amazing! It happened so many times it was easy to make money with the stock. Since VTSS is currently very closely aligned with the telecom equip. companies, it's fair to assume their business cycle is essentially the same, but only slightly out of phase. Telecom equips. seemed to have broken this cyclical spell in the later part of the '90s and all were the darlings of Wall St. VTSS rode that part of the cycle well. Remember when analysts biggest concern was that VTSS couldn't produce all the product that the market wanted? At that time another concern was that some competing technology would come and fill the production void. Well, those two concerns are right now not too big of a problem! :-) I'm going to be very interested in seeing if the purchasing depts again "switch on" all at the same time. Have they now differentiated themselves and are they now far enough from the ATT womb that they will act on their own? I see some light at the end of the tunnel for many of my other holdings. Right now cash is very tight, so I've been budgeting my spending on VTSS and some other stocks. It appears that some of the economic recovery is starting to help other stocks of mine. If so, they could start spinning off some much needed cash well before VTSS starts its recovery (or even stops its descent!). So, with a bit of luck maybe I'll get to add to inventory in the next three months. At this point it seems we'll need the entire body of analysts to offer stinky projections of VTSS's outlooks before the stock stops its decline. Best regards, Tom