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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Killswitch who wrote (14134)	8/9/2002 9:49:59 AM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Kicking myself for not staying short. I had all three of the "big" storage stocks including ELX. Sometimes "discipline" is a PIA!

To: Killswitch who wrote (14134)	8/9/2002 11:10:17 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 19219

Price Headley morning remarks: bigtrends.com For the past several weeks we've been looking at our three key daily indicators (the VIX, the Rydex, and the put/call ratio) to provide us with some sense of direction. However, we've recently been seeing important information in some of our weekly indicators. The weekly Consensus Index, a product of Consensus Inc., is simply a percentage measure of bullish opinions on the overall market. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Index is a similar weekly survey, with the added information of bearishness opinions and neutral opinions. Over the last three weeks we have seen a decidedly bullish turn in both of these indices. As contrarians we typically look to zig when others zag because we have seen that the trading crowds are usually either wrong, or they are too late. Knowing that, we look at bearish opinions as a time to buy. Two weeks ago the Consensus Index marked a bullish opinion of only 22%, which was the next to lowest low of the year. Likewise, the AAII index recently indicated 27.9% bullishness against 48.8% bearishness. While the bullish opinion is significantly low, the real point of interest here is the distinct bearishness. The figure of 48.8% bearishness is the highest percentage of bearishness in the last six months. These distinctly high levels of pessimism are a signal of a market bottom. By comparison, on March 23rd of 2001, the Consensus Bullishness Index was at 10%, indicating extreme fear. That same week, the AAII index bullishness was at 27.8%, and bearishness was at 47.2%. Over the next twenty trading days the Nasdaq returned 12.1%. A similar scenario played out in September of last year. On September 14th of 2001, the Consensus survey was 26% bullish while the AAII survey showed bullishness of only 26.7%, and bearishness of 36.7%. Twenty trading days later the Nasdaq had returned 7.8% and was still on it's way up. A very similar setup with the AAII and the Consensus surveys is in motion right now. Last week the consensus was 28% bullish, while the AAII was 34.2% bullish. This lack of optimism is our buying signal.