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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4806)	8/9/2002 12:57:21 AM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

Cary, You are right on. The problem with these historical comparisons is they lack context. When looking at the macro-level market valuation metrics you need to consider several factors: - interest rates - inflation - dividend yields - capital gains tax rates - dividend tax rates - expected rate of earnings growth I also think unemployment and productivity are important considerations. Without knowing these basic economic facts it is pointless to compare valuation ratios from 75 years ago to today. Why are house prices rising today? People are looking at their savings and where they might invest - How does 2.25%, if you lock in for 5 year, sound to you? How about the stock market? Yowzwer. With no place to put their money, people are putting into their homes and second homes. It is a competitive market between asset classes. Simply looking at the valuation of one class at some point in the past does not give you enough infomration to say anything with understanding the available alternatives for capital. Paul