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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayners who wrote (98417)	8/9/2002 7:40:21 PM
From: Israel	Respond to of 99280

ACF does auto loans while NCEN does mortgage loans. not just mortgage loans, sub-prime mortgage loans... with a large amount of that in ARM's to boot.. and if you've followed sub-prime anything, eventually, they fall apart. The thing that will tank NCEN (apart from some kind of fraud) would be a collapse of the housing market and its prices which will eventually occur. take a look at housing stocks, most are 20-30% off their lows, does that not tell you that perhaps the housing market is beginning to slow down and the best is behind them?? By the time the evidence is clear that housing has in fact reached a peak, NCEN will be trading at $5.. and what'd be the point of shorting it then?? if the year over year growth rates start to flatten out...yea I'd be inclined to call a top once again, by the time this occurs the stock will be in the single digits as Mr. Market figures out whats going on before anyone else does. Israel