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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mt_mike who wrote (4282)8/9/2002 5:05:53 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
surely, eventually depression after thwarted recessions

look at it in human terms

if you keep taking stool hardeners because you refuse to take a nice simple cyclical shit (i.e. daily)...

then eventually your final excretion will jettison your entire ass and half your lower intestines

but in the meantime, you will experience MAJOR BLOAT
the current bloat is with Treasurys and Real Estate
the upcoming bloat will likely be in GOLD

to avert a recession equates one-one with creation of a new bubble whenever the current bubbles lose pressure and begin to decline
the system must preserve the wealth by shifting it into other asset classes, in order to avoid its destruction
the liquidity (monetary expansion) seeks a new low pressure zone
in 2001-02 it was Treasurys, with 5.5% yields
in 2000-01 it was a continuation of Real Estate, which has stressed the highend too far already

the major league question is thus: WHERE NEXT BUBBLE ???
it must be a low pressure zone
I say GOLD, since Tulips and SouthSea just wont work

if gold is good for the Rothchilds, it is good for me
eventually I can purchase that ranch
and punch some dogies
and run a summer camp for young women

/ jim (outtahere)



To: mt_mike who wrote (4282)8/10/2002 11:09:36 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
how do you see Fed-inspired liquidity arriving?

lower rates have so far resulted in less lending
corporate bond market has reduced somewhat
corp spreads are widening
we are in a credit crunch

that is why I mention fed giveaways
gonna be much more hand2mouth with tax rebates, unemployment benefit extension, SBA loans, worker retraining, fed tax forgiveness

what else do you see for forms of liquidity?
I run out of ideas
the so-called BLUNT INSTRUMENT of rates is showing itself to be very ineffective
I have said many times that we are at the end of the road with stocks and bonds and currency
we are seeing exactly that
valuations are still high, rates are way low, dollar is still silly high
END OF THE ROAD, and that is why Fed policy is failing now

any ideas, Mr BankMan ?
/ jim