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To: Earlie who wrote (186965)	8/9/2002 9:49:18 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

CFZ Gang: My PM mail box is jammed and I apologize to those who have been so kind as to send me notes, etc. It has been a wild, and extremely busy summer at this end and with the exception of a glorious week at Oshkosh (an inviolate "Mecca" for those of us who fly) I have been heavily occupied. I hope to tackle the PM box this weekend. I have always answered all PMs and I intend to keep it that way. Best, Earlie

To: Earlie who wrote (186965)	8/9/2002 10:38:35 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I am convinced that the continuing, indeed accelerating erosion of the U.S. economy will become highly visible to even the dullest sheep this fall I just got back from dinner with two other couples. there were all kinds of tales of woe. One guy, a lawyer, does a lot of real estate work. he said he has never had collection problems like he has now. his clients either aren't paying him or are paying very slowly. one of his clients is a "sub-prime" lender, lending on real estate at maybe 40% of value at rates of 12% with six or seven points. the guy has made a mint for years, with maybe one foreclosure every other year. the guy now has ten foreclosures. the other couple talked about a high-end restaurant they visited last weekend. the place used to be very popular, and it used to take two-three weeks to get a weekend reservation. not only did they get a saturday night reservation on the prior wednesday, at the end of their meal the waiter gave them a plastic punch card. one punch for every meal, after five you get a free entre. business is slowing everywhere. it has started.