Hi Jay,
Thank you for your thoughts-filled response. I've read it a few times to reflect on them. My thoughts on your note are:
a) starting with the weather, Kuala Lumpur, Bangsar in particular, the quarter of by now this sprawling city where I live, is in typical equatorial mood right now. The sun shines brightly, there are beautiful butterflies checking out the flower plants outside my patio, a strong but fresh breeze, and sounds of birds chirping away. A large cup of English tea, my usual drink for this time of day, and the afternoon is as good as it gets here, esp after a 2 hour nap after lunch.
This morning, it was an early morning walk at the Lake Gardens, starting early at 6.45am, and the air was crisp fresh, even if a little moist, what with one having to saunter through glorious morning mist among the rich, lush vegetation. It looked perfect too.
b) On changes in the world, I feel quite positive today: that positive changes will happen in little spurts, esp as they involve investments. Many of the changes, they are positive, only because the alternatives would be apocalyptical calamity, such as allowing Brazil to sink, which the US cannot afford. Other changes, primarily from a technology point of view, are positive too: think of the technology involved in the separation of the twins, it could, imho, only have been performed in the US, nowhere else, and this will be the case for a long time.
Other changes, which have a more selfish slant to us as investors, involve advances in HW, SW, comm equipment, wireless, and of course, biotechnology. Having spent quite a few of my working years in both IT and biotechnology companies, I can vouch that there are very many smart people out there, continuing to generate new inventions, discoveries, from drug discovery to new equipment to new ways of manufacturing these complex products. I feel convinced that no economy than the US is better equipped to fund these smart people, bring the products to market, ensure the products are safe, and bring general betterment to society, whether it be in US, Europe, Asia or Africa.
c) I reflect on Nasdaq today, and I feel that maybe, just maybe, we are going to see better movement in the months to come. After all, the bellweather stocks such as Cisco have seen their stock price struck down to 1/8 of their highs, and there are numerous others. There are values to be found today, not only because prices are cheap, but because we will always want the 'next best thing', and there are companies now, that bring to market DVD, TFT, HBA, etc etc etc that the world will continue to buy in huge quantities. The food chain for these companies, manufacturers of chips, the chip equipment, they all seem attractive now, all that is needed is a little experience to sift through the rubble and invest in them.
I have no technology stocks in my portfolio right now, but as Barrons cover article suggests this week, it may be time to tip gingerly into them perhaps.
d) Companies like Amgen, Genentech are, imho, on the cusp of significant growth in years to come. They have no cloud overhang on them, their PEs are reasonable, so why not invest in them now.
e) Political change, I feel, will continue to be positive in the months to come. The new reality facing the superpowers that no one has an absolute advantage in the event of a nuclear war, there cannot be hard views of 'evil' empires as in years past, and much of the world's economic, social and political change has to be peacefully negotiated.
f) Where the US alone chooses to impose its will, a la Iraq, eventual consequences to be faced, but I am very unclear about the outcome of such unilateral exercise of military might. What I feel sure about is that somehow, the Bush presidency will continue to be dogged by accidents waiting to happen, much as his father's was. There is something about them that does not bring great progress during their times in the White House, I know not why.
g) So, I wait for 2004 to arrive, hopeful that either stock markets remain more or less where they are now, or the fundamentals of many of the well managed companies bring them to levels that reflect their earning capacity, etc. I include, most definitely, the likes of Cisco, Microsoft, SAP, Xilinx, Amgen, Novellus, KLA-Tencor, and much smaller companies such as Zoran, ESST, and many others which should do well based on fundamentals.
h) Gold is difficult for me to handle, partly because of my own make-up. It is a very emotional investment, as you have to feel either very negative about the world, or just wish that things go negative, only so gold can go up. This is not good for me, as I like to wake up, esp at my age, feeling that the world is full of good things, and generally there is going to be progress during the day, week of month.
On the last comment, I did feel very good most mornings during all of 1997 thru 2001, made tons of money, but lost a fortune in the period thereafter. Now, perhaps, just perhaps, with Dow at 9K+, and Nasdaq at sub-1.3K, there is less room for error at the bottom. Who knows?
All the best to you and your family, and thanks again for your note,
Selva |
