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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (49719)	8/11/2002 12:37:09 AM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

COTS CHARTS! Really Cool! Now, somebody please tell me what they mean! "Conventional wisdom" says that COTS reports are important because the commercials are among the "smart money," and they tend to "get it right." I wondered how true that really is, so I spent the past two days making these charts, which show all the changes in long, short, and net positions by the commercials, week by week, from January 2002 through yesterday. Here's the problem: I'm not sure what, if anything, these charts are saying. My observations so far: 1. Contrary to conventional wisdom, (which, I think, says that the commercials are often early), it appears at least some of the time that, by the time the report comes out, the best knee-jerk response is to short. 2. For some reason, these guys went CLOWN long, (or is it that they covered their shorts clownishly?), on the NDX the week of April 16-23, just as the market tanked. Why would the "smart" money do that? 3. The NDX reports for the past three weeks have been almost perfect contrarian indicators -- IF you could get the data on Tuesday, instead of waiting until Friday. (Hmmm... I wonder if there aren't some folks who CAN get the data on Tuesday?) Okay, now you guys tell me what's what. home.pacbell.net home.pacbell.net

To: Shack who wrote (49719)	8/11/2002 8:28:02 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Steppin’ back to basics… We just had a 2 week short-term uptrend, which has interrupted an intermediate several month-old downtrend. Will the ‘Up’ overcome the aging ‘Down’, or will the larger trend prevail? The advance occurred on mixed sentiment and with a lot of skepticism, which is bullish. The down trend is getting a bit old and extended. On the other hand, the rally contains overlaps and looks corrective. Which one will it be? Mr. Market is working hard to give us an answer. The DOW is now facing resistance from – and is challenging – the down trendline on the daily, which was active since March. In a simple way, a break of the 2 week-old lower support line would be needed for a breakdown. For my $$ and cents, until a trend becomes a little more obvious, which should happen soon, it may not be a good time for large unhedged positions. FWIW, on the hourly DOW, the MACD has formed a bearish divergence and it is overbought. Hourly ADX is neutral on the DOW, and getting low on the flatter-acting NDX.