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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (2259)	8/10/2002 8:27:42 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: NVLS Q1 ended March 30, 2002 -63% YOY revenue decrease LRCX Q1 ended March 31, 2002 -64% YOY revenue decrease AMAT Q2 ended April 28, 2002 -46% YOY revenue decrease Yeah, but what did they report for SEQUENTIAL quarterly revenue and what did they predict for the next quarter? Since analysts are like CEO's and don't have a frigging clue what orders will be like 12 months from now... I don't pay much attention other than for humor. Morgan seems to have a great clue as to what WILL drive the market in the future and if he is right than orders, when there is money, will turn on like Niagra Falls when they finish working on the falls...i.e. a flood of water/orders. It would seem silly to sell a $13 stock with the hope of buying it at $6 or $8 or even $10 when -you expect it to be $30 in a year or two ..at best you Dollar cost average into the stock in steps from here if you don't already own it. -orders are growing each quarter -Companies have a deficit now of IT spending that will probably flood in once the purse strings are opened. -New hiring... when the industry picks up again, more people will need more PCs, etc. Then again, maybe we go back to notepads and tin cans with string? :) Kirk

To: FJB who wrote (2259)	8/10/2002 8:44:44 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 25522

Robert, your comparison makes more sense since Q-to-Q results can change so fast. Thank you. Gottfried

To: FJB who wrote (2259)	8/12/2002 7:59:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 25522

Robert, Thanks for posting the links and extracting the rev numbers. It seems there are many ways of arranging the data, and many plausible conclusions. I haven't the foggiest idea of whether AMAT is increasing its dominance of the semi-equipment industry, or not. What is clear is that rip-roaring demand increases will not be happening in the next few weeks. From news that is posted on these threads, it seems fab utilization still has a ways to go before there is need for more equipment, except of course for "technology buys". So in my opinion, the best that a semi investor can hope for at this time is stabilization of revenues, with slightly higher earnings, and rising bookings. If we get a report like that from AMAT I'd be thankful. We'd still be subject to down drafts from the dollar, and war-drum-beating. But at least we'd have a fundamental peg to hang our hat on till the next report. Sarmad