To: jcky who wrote (37046 ) 8/11/2002 11:10:18 PM From: Nadine Carroll Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500 Do you mean like how the Israelis have a history of dragging Americans into the Mideast conflicts You mean, by our support of their existence? Yeah, like that. For sure the Mideast would have been peace and quiet without the Israelis. It must be Israel's fault that Lebanon had a civil war or Saddam invaded Kuwait, everything else is.Here are the sobering facts Numbers are useless, show me good intelligence reports. In 1967, the Arabs outnumbered the Israelis 3 to 1 in men, artillery, and tanks. But their armies worked miserably nonetheless. The intelligence I've seen says that Iraqi units, even the elite ones, are in tough shape. There's isn't much point in threatening an irrational mind, is there? It may be worth a shot even if you're not sure. You certainly don't want to announce that you won't retaliate for an attack, which is what you seem to want Sharon to do. That makes an attack on Israel a free option for Saddam.And you certainly don't find any credible experts asserting Saddam is irrational, do you? Pollack believes Saddam is a victim of his character pathology, not his irrationality. At a certain point, the difference between irrationality and character pathology becomes functionally indistinguishable. Another open question with Saddam is, what quality of information does he receive? It makes it very difficult to predict him, which is itself at the core of the interventionist argument. After 9/11, we are less willing to wait around and just see what he does.The first reason lies in the devastating counter-strike from either the US or Israel in the form of either nuclear weapons or overwhelming military force which would guarantee the destruction of his regime. It deterred him during the Gulf war, but has not deterred him into keeping the armistace agreement since. It is an arugment for needing an aggressive stance, and really immediate threats against Saddam. thought the hawks were intent on removing Saddam? So what if he's not alive and around? It's the regime we want to change, not just Saddam.What everyone has also failed to address, except briefly by tek, are the far reaching implications of Bush's cowboy diplomacy. The US has never employed a policy of pre-emptive war upon a nation which has never directly attacked us. Would this lower the threshold for aggressive confrontation by sub-superpower nations which are constantly picking a bone with each other (Pakistan and India, Israel and the entire Mideast, almost all of Africa, etc.)? And what does this imply about the credibility of America, a nation built on the rule of law, and the expectations we should police the world in an equitable manner? These are good questions and the strongest arguments for not preempting. But considering the Gulf War and the situation since then, Iraq is certainly not just any sovereign country. It is an aggressor in violation of its armistice agreement. It didn't keep its agreement, but forced us to stay there to enforce non-agression against SA and Kuwait, while Saddam failed to cooperate in every way he could manage without bringing war down on his head. This passes for triumph in the Arab world. Thus we are an "aggressor" in Arab eyes because we are in Iraq and SA, but we are a weak aggressor because Saddam thumbs his nose at us. It's the worst of all worlds for the US. And anytime we threaten to move, the world rushes to tie us down like Gulliver in Lilliput, the diplomats on one side and the terrorists raising the flame in Israel on the other. Cowboy diplomacy has its risks, but so does a weakened and retreating US. There is a certain diplomatic logic in "Crazier Than Thou", as Tom Friedman has pointed out.