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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ubetcha who wrote (15095)	8/11/2002 7:20:07 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 82414

Terry >Sure glad that we have the government on our side. I agree, but what side is that?! >I will defend to the death your right to say it and post it here. Wow! Thanks for the sentiment, Terry, but "to the death"! Are things around here that bad now? Please believe me, I won't expect you to go that far when everyone is up in arms against me. I'll shut up long before then. Actually, that attack wasn't the first, not by any means, and it won't be the last. These are not easy times and I'm sure when one says things that others very much don't like that they can take exception. And now I'm really going to say something highly contentious --- I wouldn't be surprised to see the general market going up for a few months from here on. Looking at this chart of the Dow, I notice that the movements for the last few years have been pretty accurately defined by the Bollinger Bands (the blue lines which envelope the trend). In other words, the Index has moved accurately from the lower band to the upper one, and then weaken as, in fact, it should do. According to this idea, the DJIA is getting stronger at the moment and may move above 10,000 where it will intercept the upper band. stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyiay[df][pd20,2!c50][vc60][ilg!ll14] The Bollinger Bands are actually an index of volatility and are +/- 2 X the standard deviation of the previous 20 weeks of price action, something like a moving average on either side of the chart. At 2 X the moving average there is a 95% statistical probability that the distribution has reached its limit so, in fact, there is a true forecasting potential in the BBs. An interesting observation is that the OBV has, over the past few years, remained fairly constant (except for the sharp down spikes at the times of sell-off). That means, despite the overall fall in prices, buying volume has remained steady. Interestingly, the directional indicators (+DI, -DI) continue to show a bear market so they would not support a purchase. In other words, there isn't a "mass movement" upwards, just a "technical recovery". I'm still not clear if gold stocks do better in a general bear or a general bull market or depend on neither. Why I say that is because, despite the notion that gold/stocks are a hedge against whatever, the main use of gold is still jewellery and it's natural to believe there would be more purchases of such items at times of general price "optimism" than "pessimism". Yes, I know the "bugs" are always pessimistic and are hoping for the big day when the economy collapses in order to justify their purchase of gold/stocks but, until that day comes, I have the feeling that gold/stocks will do better when times are better. So, I do not see that an anticipated increase in the Dow will per se be unfavorable for gold stocks.