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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (4842)	8/11/2002 5:57:00 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95596

G, that was a good post and one that I can agree with 100%. KLAC is one of the stocks I have been waiting on to reach a long term monthly bottom. You will see what I mean on this chart: stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20021231][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G The guy who posted suggested that KLAC might need to double bottom at 28 to give off a buy signal that he has in the past seen as dependable: messages.yahoo.com There are pro's and cons to your argument about a much lower soxx.If you go back and check previous posts by me I had stated that the "turning point" in the past always seemed to be a double bottom on KLAC.That would mean that klac would have to go to around 28 or so.This would imply yet another 20% downside(at least).That would put the soxx in the 250 range and rysix in the 7.50 range.However,klic seems to be fairly priced when viewed by P/S and P/B bottom standards.So,I would expect Klac and amat to drop some more on a comparison basis to klic.I really do hopr that rysix gets down to the 7.50 level--it would do wonders to my average price!! The recovery IS here though and I fully expect it to show after Labor day.I am in the capitol equipment business and the past week has shown that suddenly everyone is buying.This is after nearly 8 months of NOTHING!!We sell to a broad range of industries and it would seem that they are all turning around(this past week).In light of the opinion that the recovery MUST be led by technology in general and chips in particular,one could do a lot worse than buying these stocks now.Come September,I see the inevitable turn around of the semi industry.JMHO Also the turn around in September to October is something that many would feel more likely to be more traditional bottom territory than perhaps what we have already had happen since the last week of July. RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (4842)	8/11/2002 6:05:51 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95596

As they say - very, very interesting. If it is true, this is very good news. Also, if true, the semi-equip companies should be seeing this change immediately and start talking about it during their quarterly reviews of performance. Instead of the standard line that "the future is murky", upside projections may be forth coming. Don

To: Gottfried who wrote (4842)	8/12/2002 10:31:36 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 95596

RE: >I am in the capital equipment business and the past week has shown that suddenly everyone is buying.This is after nearly 8 months of NOTHING!!We sell to a broad range of industries and it would seem that they are all turning around(this past week)< messages.yahoo.com This could account for why NVLS picked today to buy SFAM... and I think they had to use stock rather than cash as SFAM insiders who hold many shares want to participate in the recovery. Delay the buy and the price gets more expensive. Buy with stock and SFAM insiders get to participate in the recovery. IF this news is true, then we should see it in the price action on the charts as people doing the ordering will buy.

To: Gottfried who wrote (4842)	8/13/2002 7:25:02 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95596

Gottfried: Interesting. But he is not in the "capital" equipment business as quoted. Instead he is in the "capitol" equipment business. MTSN last night said visibility is "very poor." Recovery is more modest than expected going into early 2003. Pushouts and cancellations were noted. Bookings should be flat to down 10% next quarter. Trend in orders to be flat for the next to quarters at least. Nothing seen to push the market going forward. Stated they needed to "rightsize" their company further. AMAT has max pain at $15.