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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (37343)	8/12/2002 4:47:19 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

If we fight Iraq - some very meticulous analysis by Anthony Cordesman, presented to the War College in July, and available for download at CSIS, which, to place them in the spectrum, recently named Ehud Barak as their "distinguished statesman" on Middle East issues. If We Fight Iraq: Iraq and The Conventional Military Balance: csis.org If We Fight Iraq: Iraq and Its Weapons of Mass Destruction: csis.org Iraq: A Dynamic Net Assessment: csis.org csis.org Also available, "Saddam's War Plan" by Arnaud de Borchgrave: csis.org

To: Ilaine who wrote (37343)	8/12/2002 6:50:28 PM
From: jcky	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

CobaltBlue, "One point in their favour is that unlike the wars in the Balkans or Afghanistan, this is a confrontation without a clear strategy and without an evident, realistic outcome." I found this analysis particularly interesting by that site. I think Jane's is trying to imply the invasion of Iraq is confused, perhaps mirroring the administration's Mideast policy. Jane's is also predicting an Afghanistan-style invasion with massive air strikes, special forces, and local insurgencies. Good luck George W; Iraq is no Afghanistan. janes.com

To: Ilaine who wrote (37343)	8/12/2002 10:32:03 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi CobaltBlue; From the Jane's link: One point in their favour is that unlike the wars in the Balkans or Afghanistan, this is *a confrontation without a clear strategy and without an evident, realistic outcome.* Thus, to head off any *criticism of UK involvement* in an attack on Iraq, which has come not only from the usual left-wing critics in Britain, but also *from much-decorated retired army generals and ennobled retired diplomats*, a new British strategy is unfolding. The Bush administration is being urged to continue pursuing the diplomatic course as far as possible. In September, on the margins of the United Nations' yearly General Assembly meeting, the British hope that the US will sign up to a new mediation effort by the UN's secretary-general, Kofi Annan, whose reputation is rising. What if Annan fails? Our prediction: an operation will begin with massive air strikes in December followed by the insertion of special forces and the fomenting of local rebellions. janes.com Not exactly a ringing endorsement of a policy when the professional military all over the planet criticizes it. -- Carl