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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (49795)	8/12/2002 6:32:32 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I see Augie responded for me. Glad he got the story correct. When option OI is high enough most stuff probably tracks reasonably well (except in meltup/meltdown mode). Options volume on QQQ is staggering. 200,000 calls at QQQ 24 alone. That represents 20M shares! There are another 150K calls at 25. Options writers do not want those to go green I assure you. Compare that to S with maximum of 10K at any strike and you might begin to see the reliability issue. How about JPM. 17K max at a strike and one at 12K. I usually like 20K at a strike before I start associating reliability. I could be wrong about non-tech, but that is the way tech works. WMT as 15K calls at 50 and it is below that. S is below those 10K call options. But I can not place reliability #'s on those. GE has the required # of options. 44K calls at strike 30. That was enough for me to buy Sept and Dec puts. I just have not tracked GE for reliability. If the DOW turns down, I would guess that GE will lead. IBM is interesting in that they vigorously defended 65 with 22K puts and it shows not much inclination to get to 75 with 30K calls. My guess is that it is exactly sitting on max pain as I type. One never really knows how many options are short and how many are long etc. IQUATO might give a max pain figure but there is a huge difference if J6P sold naked calls and the option pits own those calls than if on the same open interest J6P bought calls that the option pits want to expire worthless. It is all a "best guess" scenario. My best guess is that QQQ INTC MSFT are sitting smack on "true" max pain. CSCO may or may not be. I believe IBM is and that GE is not. Just educated guesses. M