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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (4405)	8/13/2002 1:09:38 AM
From: Threshold	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

I remember a Scientific American article that explained why 3G would not deliver what its marketing gurus promised. Now if only I could find it. I think it made these points among others: not enough bandwith per user, in practical situations, to drive people to new end user devices...... Well, the search for it may not be that important unless one is stuck in one of those stocks.

To: stockman_scott who wrote (4405)	8/13/2002 9:47:25 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

3G will be fantastic later this decade when deck clears / jw

To: stockman_scott who wrote (4405)	8/13/2002 9:51:16 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

pulse: gold #313.6, dollar 107.6 / jw

To: stockman_scott who wrote (4405)	8/13/2002 9:56:24 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

my personal view of war efforts in East Asia, MidEast I sense double failures: Afghanistan and Iraq Afghanistan is slowly reverting back to Civil War and USForces will be used for target practice soon already, factions are fighting and killing each other does anyone read history books pertaining to Afghany? soon US soldiers will be labeled "infidels" we will be accused of occupying their nation even as we expend useless efforts in "nation-building" we vastly underestimate Iraq and Arab quiet support just when America is its weakest economically in 30 yrs, we plan for expansive war undertakings ??? has anyone beaten up a feuding brother? the other brother will defend him, taking arms against the attacker who incredibly naive we are to expect solid Arab support Saudi Arabia has never been weaker politically, economically they sport the world's largest per capita federal debt they only recently stopped building cities of marble in the desert I think we are overextended, militarily, financially little does the world realize that our entire banking system is about to implode, while our economy slows, while our stock market erodes, while our currency continues on a long bleeding decline the world community is about to pull the plug on our Carte Blanche federal expense account IS ANYONE PAYING ATTENTION IN WASHINGTON DC ??? no way, these war endeavors could bring the USA to its knees war will not resuscitate America it will expose our financial vulnerability our federal deficits will absolutely mushroom and for what benefit? it will expose our political vulnerability already, political support in Europe for all all all all positions by the Bush Administration is very poor I mean all (political, military, trade, financial, corporate, legal) if Islamics want to hurt USA, they can best do it with the USdollar and USTBonds both of which I believe they will do, and are doing we are incredibly stupid in tactics the "leaked" anti-Saudi Defense Intell report will encourage Saudis to pull money out of TBonds, out of Stocks, and out of Real Estate which will weaken us further we are as stupid as we are arrogant !!! / jim

To: stockman_scott who wrote (4405)	8/13/2002 10:07:14 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

anyone notice the bold manipulation effort by banks/brokers? Goldman Sux last week does a 180-flip, expects Fed rate cut market rallies shorts cover, naive retail investors join in today Merrill Lynch ups reco to OVERWEIGHT the entire major banking sector and thus ignores the following: - lower rates mean lower margins for loans - a skein of corporate bankruptcies in the $B's each - systemic South American defaults in sovereign debt - derivative bombs lurking throughout the entire landscape ... from stocks, currency, debt, gold - all while the US economy shows wide evidence of slowdown yup, I would say the Houses are trying to keep things propped up I think they are exiting, even as reco's are issued they are desperately attempting to avert a disintegration of JPMorgan and Citibank, from capital requirements to maintain their extreme portfolios, to maintain their extreme derivative contracts the press/media is totally asleep on the job !!! since repeal of Glass Steagal, brokers and bankers and insurance are largely a single business group they are scratching each other's leposy-ridden backs / jim

To: stockman_scott who wrote (4405)	8/13/2002 12:28:31 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

- "What About the Housing Bubble?" Dan Denning asks provocatively in a weekly e-mail missive to his Strategic Investments subscribers. - Denning writes: "Business Week, ever the author of inane questions, poses this latest doozy: 'Housing: Is It a Bubble If it Doesn't Pop?'" Denning's answer is a definite "Yes." - "The housing market appears to be strong," he concedes. "In June, new home sales hit an annualized rate of 1 million units for the first time ever. And figures show that at the current rate of demand, the stock of existing and newly built homes would be 'consumed' in 3.9 months." - But Denning finds no comfort in the housing market's blistering rate of price appreciation. Rather, he sees the troubling signs of a housing bubble about to burst. "Ceteris paribus, the housing market is like the Nasdaq in 1999 - growing to an infinite sky," he observes. "[Since] home prices are rising faster than incomes, new buyers must borrow in the belief that home prices will keep rising. In other words, new home buyers must count on a greater fool in order to make the investment profitable. - "But rising home prices are already discouraging buyers from taking the plunge," says Dan. "In California, the front-runner in national trends, the California Association of Realtors reports that only 27% of those surveyed could afford to buy a median-priced home. Can anyone say 'Unsustainable?' About the only way to sustain consumption when such a large portion of income goes to mortgage payments is to withdraw equity from the house. It's a Faustian bargain." - During the second quarter of 2002, according to the gifted bank analyst Charles Peabody, 67% of households who refinanced their existing mortgages increased the loan amount by at least 5%. In other words, they extracted an additional 5%, or more, of equity from their homes. - "The heart of the rising price trend is in the refinancing phenomenon," Denning continues, "which is the last remaining crutch to consumer spending in the U.S. economy. Something has got to give. As Peabody puts it, 'Leverage against an asset that can deflate in value is a recipe for disaster.' Houses can fall in value just like stocks. And when they do, those who have bought too much house and extracted too much equity will find themselves paying for an asset whose resale value is less than the value of the mortgage. Upside down, out of luck, and no more trips to Home Depot." - Thanks for the uplifting observations, Dan. See you in the bread lines. (taken from the Daily Reckoning)