re: Next Gen Wireless Data R&D
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We are seeing a lot of articles like this one right at the moment. I do not think that they are much different than articles that were flowing out of Europe in 1991 and 1992 as digital mobile wireless telephony struggled to assert itself.
I have a feeling that at the end of this decade we will look back and smile.
In these tough times for tech, tough times for wireless, it is my feeling that companies that continue to sensibly invest in wireless R&D will still generating cash flow emerge winners.
I've clipped below an article by one of the sharper tacks watching wireless.
It is one of the better articles I've seen in the last 30 days on this subject:
>> Next-Generation Wireless Research – A Slow Burn, Not a Big Bang
Ray Hegarty
the451
August 02 2002
With wireless industry big hitters lowering the bar for infrastructure and handset shipments, most R&D budgets are under pressure - which means the opportunity to make an impression on the market is better than ever.
Over the last two weeks, many of the top players in wireless, including Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson and Nortel, have reported flat to negative results. These companies have been forced once again to lower the bar for handset and infrastructure shipments of 2.5G and 3G technologies in the second half of 2002 – and in some cases well into 2003.
While continued investment in R&D is essential if the industry is to overcome technical challenges, reduced budgets over the next couple of years mean that technological progress will be more of a slow burn rather than a big bang.
Impact Assessment
The Message
Wireless carriers are beginning to feel the pinch of their massive debt loads, and credit rating agencies are downgrading their debt based on the billions spent on spectrum. As downward revisions for handsets and infrastructure shipments further delay next-generation network rollouts, equipment suppliers are suffering. Meanwhile, 3G standards bodies are making numerous changes to a standard that was supposed to be commercial.
Competitive Landscape
The lack of meaningful mobile data applications today doesn't mean that applications won't be available tomorrow. So called '4G' research, which includes system architecture, services and applications, radio design, signal processing and transceiver technology, promises to deliver technological advantages tomorrow in the form of 3G upgrades.
The451 Assessment
Any new communication model will have to cope with different access technologies of user devices, such as cellular, cordless, WLAN-type systems, short-range connectivity, broadcast systems and wired systems. Dollars will continue to be spent on R&D for access technologies that have to be integrated into some kind of common, flexible and expandable platform to complement each other and to satisfy different service requirements in several radio environments.
Context
Wireless carriers spent billions of dollars on 3G licenses – now they are struggling to find additional funds to deploy the infrastructure. Last week for example, Spanish wireless carrier Telefónica Móviles and Finnish operator Sonera made an announcement that effectively means they are abandoning their 3G plans in several European countries. Additionally, Telefónica stated that all of its WCDMA activities in Austria, Germany, Italy and Switzerland will be postponed. The Spanish operator also wrote off €4.8bn in 3G license costs for these countries, while Sonera wrote off €4.3bn for its 3G licenses in Germany and Italy.
As previously noted in 'What is 4G?' the industry hyped what it could ultimately deliver. At least for the short term, 3G will be all about basic voice services, with mobile data supplying the artificial sweetener to the carriers' average revenue per user.
We also noted that underlying 3G technologies – in particular UMTS – are immature and require further work before being ready for commercial deployment. This has impacted the industry's ability to produce 3G handsets, to conduct interoperability tests and ultimately to launch commercial 3G services.
Competition
It is now unlikely that any meaningful growth in mobile infrastructure spending will occur until 2004, as carriers minimize 2G capital spending and delay 3G deployments in order to preserve cash and allow 3G (WCDMA and cdma2000) technology to mature.
OEMs, distributors and operators are implementing cost-cutting measures that include job cuts, much tighter supply-chain controls and reigning in R&D spending. We think this reduction in R&D could have a negative impact on some companies but presents a huge opportunity to those companies with deeper pockets or with a well-conceived R&D program to establish themselves as key players once the period of uncertainty has passed.
Over the last 18 months, the mobile industry has been in a state of transition. The move is toward software services, content and applications. We now see significant spending by Microsoft in the wireless enterprise space, while Nokia pursues a more consumer focus. Ericsson is also undergoing something of a change with a focus on mobile infrastructure and next-generation fixed switching.
The squeeze on R&D spending comes at a time when the complexity of the network infrastructure is jumping to a much higher level. Middleware is the software glue that will help programs and databases on different devices to work together. Middleware will convert and consolidate services and applications for the mobile format and domain. There are certain characteristics and concepts that are driving spending in this space.
Emerging Trends
Despite reduced R&D spending, expected to fall by as much as 20% in the telecommunications equipment and semiconductor sectors this year, research will continue to be driven by concepts such as interoperability, security, system and device management and end-to-end connectivity. The Open Mobile Alliance is a good example of this trend.
More specifically, R&D spending will focus on system architecture, services and applications, radio design, signal processing, transceiver technology, network protocol and signaling, reconfigurable core design, interoperability and coexistence as well as spectrum sharing and bandwidth allocation.
The future wireless communication model will have to cope with different access technologies from user devices such as cellular, cordless, WLAN type systems, short-range connectivity, broadcast systems and wired systems. All these access technologies will have to be integrated into some kind of common, flexible and expandable platform to complement each other and to satisfy different service requirements in several radio environments. The inter-working, mobility management and roaming would be handled via the medium access system and the IP-based core network.
Interconnectivity will be important to the role small embedded computational devices play in our everyday environment – enabling them to be operated seamlessly and transparently. These devices are meant to be active and aware of their surroundings so that they can react and emit information when needed.
Location awareness will play a major role for future wireless network services. There are several projects currently underway, mostly concerned with virtual tourist guides and involving tracking technologies such as GPS (Global Positioning Services). However, several companies are already looking at developing more sophisticated location solutions, such as providing location information in geographic contexts, as well as developing directory services for things such as personal profiles (age, interests, etc). We expect Web services, and in particular UDDI, to make a significant impact in this regard. Openwave, Kivera, Intrado, Qualcomm's SnapTrack and Webraska are just some of the companies we expect to be looking to leverage Web services for location-based platforms.
With the number of services rising and IP and cellular networks converging, automatic service discovery will become an important feature in upcoming wireless network scenarios. With service discovery, devices can automatically discover network services, including their properties, and services can advertise their existence in a dynamic way. There are several service discovery protocols currently under development, such as the IETF (Internet Engineering Task Force) Service Location Protocol (SLP), Sun Microsystems' Java-based Jini, Microsoft's Universal Plug and Play (UPnP), and the Bluetooth Service Discovery Protocol (SDP).
All of them use similar system architectures but differ in their functionality, network transport protocol and code mobility. More work is underway to refine and simplify the process for more efficient service discovery. The variety of methods will also make it important to have bridges between the protocols to enable service discovery between devices that don't run the same protocol. A long-term goal is to harmonize these approaches and achieve one or two protocols that work with each other. Look out for companies like WaterCove, Juniper, Nokia's Amber Networks, Tahoe and Megisto in this space.
Multiple radio access schemes will mean devices will face significant challenges, such as vertical hand-over and adaptability. The need for global availability, performance, higher data rates and network-independent services will determine the required technical capabilities of terminals. The main characteristic of future terminals will be their ability to adapt to different scenarios and environments.
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- Eric - |
