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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tony who wrote (52466)	8/13/2002 12:16:00 PM
From: TigerPaw	Respond to of 54805

In the last few years of the "boom" there were some rather egregeous exagerations to earnings to simulate growth in some businesses which were not experiencing the same rate of growth they did in their early incarnations. Throughout the market the last several years of price growth has been erased. Four or five years worth of stock price inflation is gone and has been gone. This indicates that a lot more is going wrong than just the bubble, the entire Personal PC, Internet, and Telecom industries appear to have never started. Think Qualcom is a Gorilla? - forget it - wireless never was. Think Yahoo will make a profit? - forget it - there is no internet. The real change between then and now is one of focus. Instead of the federal government being a partner in creating a new economy, the government is a competitor in borrowing. There is no large first customer for chasm leaping initiatives as there once was, there is no cheerleader for new ideas, there is no arbitrator for world wide opportunity. The economic mojo was sold for a chump change tax cut. This is not an easy fix to escape, but the path out is not a combination of interest rate cuts with increased government borrowing. This economy needs a partner again, a partner that is able and engagued.

To: tony who wrote (52466)	8/13/2002 4:01:42 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 54805

This sebl swap issue is old news (in fact I can't understand why it is coming up now)... it was addressed by peoplesoft in their conference call one day after sebl's numbers. If you factor out the swaps sebl still did more license revenue than psft. Sebl: 170mm, psft 132mm, sebl without swaps (-18%)= 139.4mm I mention psft because psft (stock) is in an uptrend now, even though it is sebl that announced the stock buyback, and when you look deeply at trends sebl is gaining as much or more share than psft. (imo) Lizzie