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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4461)	8/13/2002 5:21:28 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

As I said, we disagree. Paul

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4461)	8/13/2002 5:34:21 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Jim, what makes me less than bearish on the stock market is this ever declining bond yields. Just look at these drops in yields today. This will sooner or later lead to move money going into quality stocks (Dow types)...or at the very least put a floor under the Dow. That is what probably happened on the last drop to the mid 7000s on the Dow. On the other hand, I guess Japanese bond yields going towards 0 did not really help their stock market either. Does that "perfect storm" scenario include a big increase in bond yields? Bond yields---don't know what time the afterhours trading quotes show up in this link. For now showing regular trading showing significant drops in yield accross the board. bloomberg.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4461)	8/13/2002 10:00:16 PM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Jim, Many say that inflation is the best gauge of wealth creation. From 1964 until 1981 there was pretty high inflation and the Dow only gained .1% during that time -- almost flat. From 1982 through 2000 -- a period of relatively low inflation -- the Dow rose over 900%. What are the factors, as you see them, in simple terms, for the two scenarios going forward, and how the markets and the economy play out? If inflation stays low? If inflation rises? Do you think inflation is the main key in how the stock market performs going forward, or do you see inflation as a reaction to a more important element? In how the economy performs going forward? In how the dollar behaves going forward? I remain, SOROS p.s. Another interesting statistic I never really studied. I would have guessed the best performing stock decade to be the 1990s or the 1920s. Here are the BEST decades by average ANNUAL return for the decade: 1920s . . . . . . . .14.95% 1950s . . . . . . . .19.28% 1980s . . . . . . . .17.57% 1990s . . . . . . . .18.17% Without the 1980s and the 1990s the average is about 8.9% What happened in the 1950s to cause the markets to rise so? ALSO, I looked again at graphs of the S&P 500 from 1871 to the present both for prices and for PE ratios. Here's a site to do this: globalfindata.com Anyone who cannot see the extremes attained in the past 15 years is blind. Look at the graphs!!!! Forget TA, statistics, trends, governments, EVERYTHING. COMMON SENSE tells you this market need to fall by another 50% at least to bring some modicum of balance. The graph "graphically" illustrates how the markets have been "marketed" to the American public for the past 15 years. From 1871 forward it looks like a flat line for about 115 years and then a rocket ship. I'd like nothing better than to see the market only reward those companies paying increasing dividends with higher stock prices. If the company never gives anything back to the investors, it is only the "greater fool theory" which justifies the stock price rising. I know there are a lot of fools around, but perhaps not enough to keep this ponzi scheme going by sheer manipulation and advertising any longer.