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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (2362)	8/13/2002 10:27:00 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

I don't believe that a counter argument is needed. Opinions about what is going to happen in the semi area are all over the board. Almost like predicting the path of a tropical hurricane. The economy is not overly healthy (new job creation). Bush constantly threatening to go to was with Iraq. ( a guaranteed market killer) and corporate scandals are far from over...so what exactly is going to drive the Nasdac higher? Brian is correct when he talks about the need for more chips in more devices....but that does not mean that our favorite companies will appreciate in price. Stock price stagnation is a serious reality. JMO...Jerome

To: Math Junkie who wrote (2362)	8/14/2002 9:57:08 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 25522

He is not dealing with real numbers. 6 months is 2 quarters and AMAT has forecast the next quarter. A 15% bookings decline next quarter, low end forecast, yields $1.51B, above reported $1.46B revenue. This and $1.78B orders this last quarter should keep revenues flat to slightly higher the next 2 quarters. All of this presumes that the economy continues to muddle along with very small GDP growth. I think the author is expecting a return to recession and large scale order cancellations. I support his preference for front end and I wonder if macroeconomic conditions, a repeat of the mild recession we had but without the "bubble" inventory build up that had to be worked through, will have a drastic effect on the, primarily, technology orders that are driving AMAT's recovery.