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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (37751)	8/14/2002 2:41:13 AM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 281500

This seems a more reasonable estimate, to me: If we go to war in Iraq, the earliest we would do so and would be physically able to get the materiel & personnel in place would be October. Why? Simple. The high in Baghdad today was 113 degrees, and it can get higher: >>Climate The climate is typical of an inland subtropical region: very hot summers and cool winters. The Mesopotamian Valley area is semi-arid, with an average annual rainfall of six inches falling mainly during the winter months from December to March. Temperatures vary widely between winter and summer. During the coldest months (December, January, and February), the average daily temperature in Baghdad and the plains area is around 11C (52F). However, the actual day-time temperature during this period ranges from freezing point to 29C (84F). Temperatures sometimes drop below zero. There are, however, extensive sunny periods. Temperatures rise gradually from mid March/early April and peak in July and August, when the average daily temperature is about 43C (109F) and the average minimum about 27C (81F). The maximum can be as high as 58C (136F). The air is dry and these high temperatures are tolerable if one avoids the midday sun and wears light clothing. By mid September, temperatures gradually begin to fall. March, April, October, and November are generally pleasant in Baghdad. Sunshine is virtually continuous. In the Basrah area, temperatures are less extreme, but humidity is high. During the hot summer months of May through October, this can make living and working conditions uncomfortable. Dust storms are common. The climate in the northern mountain area (which includes the three northern governorates mentioned above) is temperate. Rainfall averages about 650 mm (25 inches) and maximum temperatures reach about 35C (95F). However, winters are more severe, with frequent snow.<< But October is an unlikely time because it would be so blatant an attempt to influence the election that it can't be done, except under the banner of pressing need. November and December make more sense for that. Historically, with the nation in recession, the Congress in the past half century has ALWAYS fallen to the opposition party. Presumably that will happen again. If Bush consults with Congress seeking specific approvals, he's more likely to do so with more of his side on the team: between Election Day and New Year's. So I suspect this is all PsyOps in August, while Bush vacations and Congress is recessed. So expecting the advent of war (after Thanksgiving) is a reasonable scenario for political and practical reasons. The potential for 136 degree temps is not conducive to many boots on the ground; their soles might melt.