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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (4916)	8/14/2002 1:29:04 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95503

RE: "What counts as always is end demand for the products that use chips..." Yes. It is also obvious that end demand is going nowhere for "same old, same old". The real question is innovation and "new" products. Most of front end semi-equip sales are for new technology. Customers are carefully buying to fill end user and foundry customer demands for leading edge products. This is a slow, gradual process that doesn't track past semi-equip recoveries. It is not dependent on the macro economy. Rather, the macro economy depends on it. A simple example is DVDs. It has experienced record growth for a new electronics product in a dismal economic, political (9/11) environment. Technology is about new. Moore's Law is still the engine for progress and many chip companies are showing good growth rates for their most advanced products.

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (4916)	8/14/2002 2:14:48 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95503

Alastair, by all means pay particular attention to Steve Roach. He makes forecasts. >In my view looking at past backlogs is not overly helpful for this cycle.< By looking at the past you can identify trends, just like looking at stock charts. What has happened can lead to better success with forecasting, which is what we should do individually - rather than following gurus. Gottfried

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (4916)	8/14/2002 2:22:34 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95503

Alastair, For a long time, bears made the same argument about Barton Biggs. He was a smart guy who had been right for a long time. Then Barton Biggs turns bullish and the bears drop kick the guy. Suddenly he is an idiot who doesn't get it. All human beings tend toward a self-confirming bias when we filter the information we choose to believe. I think that as many bears now as bull in 2000 are in the habit of dismissing information contrary to their opinion. Paul