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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (4920)	8/14/2002 2:29:09 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 95520

If I was going to follow a guru, I wouldn't follow one named after a cockroach. Nor would I follow one tightly associated with any Broker Pimp organization.

To: Gottfried who wrote (4920)	8/14/2002 3:00:39 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Respond to of 95520

Gottfried, it is fine to look at the past. However circumstances change and what worked in the past may not work in the future. I think that we are seeing this now in the semi industry. I also think that one is better off by trying to recognize when there is a change from past patterns instead of basing investment decisions on the certainty that a pattern will repeat. By looking at the past you can identify trends, just like looking at stock charts. I am not overly enamored of making predictions from longer term stock charts. Trend following only works until the trend changes. Following cyclical patterns only work as long as the cycle repeats. As far as following gurus, I try to read all sides of the issue. In any case the "gurus" I have followed have kept me from taking long term tech positions for the last couple of years.