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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tomas who wrote (12180)	8/14/2002 3:26:32 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206203

These BULLISH weather forecasts will only make the shortage worse. I loaded plenty of PTEN today. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

To: Tomas who wrote (12180)	8/14/2002 3:31:09 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206203

"The new report points out that quarterly results from the largest gas producers in the USA show a decline in production for the fourth consecutive quarter - 0.7% this last quarter and on a year-to-year basis, 5.1%" I am sure that these figures are correct, but I am not sure that the Raymond James analysts are drawing the correct conclusions from them. First, their sources of information only include something like 40% of the natural gas production in North America, albeit they are including the largest producers. Second, the smaller producers have shown that they can increase production very rapidly when given the stimulus of rising gas prices. Third, LNG becomes economically feasible at prices of $5-$6, and there are large supplies not currently being collected and sold in places like Trinidad. Fourth, there are unexploited gas reserves in Alberta, and much larger ones (currently inaccessible by pipeline) in Alaska and northern Canada. Fifth, there may be some incentive for major producers to restrain production in order to firm up the price; they may not be constrained by limitations of production capacity. This last point is just speculation on my part, but if OPEC can manage oil prices, I don't see why major producers of natural gas shouldn't wish to do the same thing. For all these reasons, I would be unwilling to make a major reallocation of my investments on the basis of the Raymond James view. I continue to hold very large positions (for me) in natural gas, but this is for a long term (five-year and more) horizon, and also as a hedge against major disruptions of energy supplies by a war in the Middle East, from which NG would benefit.

To: Tomas who wrote (12180)	8/14/2002 7:02:01 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206203

FWIW; messages.yahoo.com

To: Tomas who wrote (12180)	8/14/2002 11:53:39 PM
From: GaAs52	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206203

ng shortage? I thought in free markets there can not be shortage of something. There will be goods with escalating prices. And you all know what happens to the ng demand when the price of ng escalates. And when OS and rig rates peak, you may refresh your memory on what happens to E&P capital spending. At ng prices north of $4, E&P companies cut their spending because OS and rigs rates were deemed very expensive. Yes, there is a fundamental problem with ng story due to rapid depletion and this is a bigger fundamental problem for drilling industry in North America. Because, at their peaking rates, they do not provide "value" to their customer; and their customers can not deliver value to their industrial customers at ng prices north of $3. This so-called ng shortage can not be resolved by aggressive drilling in mature N. American fields. Drillers make a hole and these holes get dry (almost) quickly per "the depletion theory". Sometime soon, E&P will stop drilling more (and they stopped) because it does not work, especially at peaking OS and rig rates. The so-called ng shortage will be resolved by something else, either by contracting demand, lng or something else. Drilling and other OS will have their erratic booms at general economic growths but not a secular growth. And the erratic earnings of such industry can not sustain such lofty valuations. Just check out the earnings OS and drillers for the past quarters (and for the immediate future quarters). Most of them have no earnings or very little.