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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Freep who wrote (50086)	8/14/2002 8:34:26 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Freep, your points are well taken It really doesn't matter WHY it happened, just THAT it happened. But your comment about "why the move isn't real or is manufactured or whatever" deserves some comment. All of us use various indicators, chart patterns, and wave scenarios to help us with our trading and to identify "real" moves and the market's likely future direction. For example, the low volume recently since 7/24 has had many questioning whether the rally thus far is "real." Thus when our trusted indicators, chart patterns, etc fail us we begin to ask why they have done so and we start looking for other explanations - especially when they start happening frequently, as this is the second time in a week we've had a couple hundred point Dow move in the mid afternoon that has seemed to come out of nowhere, moves that no intraday TA could have prepared us for. As far as the "focus on minutia" in a way I think we should be focusing more on 15-minute to hourly charts rather than on any bigger picture than this until we start getting some clearer direction, particularly if we are going to be regularly subjected to these major intraday whipsaws. For example Allan last night posted a nice weekly IBM chart with a target of 58, but how can we even attempt a short entry to that scenario at this time if we're getting these big intraday whipsaws? I agree that months from now many people will look back at our posts from this time and think we weren't seeing the forest for the trees. But what I'm saying is that right now it's difficult to even see the trees.

To: The Freep who wrote (50086)	8/14/2002 9:19:09 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

I was overdue to get one on the chin, and it came. Breathing through a snorkel. Looking at the last impulse leg in SPX out of August 5 low, it is working now on its 5th wave. Connecting its 2 and (this morning's) 4 bottoms, a classical EW parallel line, drawn through Wave 3 top, projects to 930. This also happens to be where the current wave 5 is equal to wave 1. I think this is where we are heading. If the current (5th) wave decides to extend, the next big R I get is near 970, where both big legs out of July 24 low would be equal. Just like Freepbriefing.com, SkiForecast does not offer a guarantee. ng.

To: The Freep who wrote (50086)	8/14/2002 10:26:25 PM
From: Berney	Respond to of 209892

Freep, Maybe it's a little simpler and much more complex. I, for one, am glad that you chose to deprive Freeplet of some of your most precious asset, your time, and continued to post. Although, getting that grub was a low blow. :o) I'll just reference another post as to FA for those that might even care: Message 17869165 I was caught by the decline and am blowing bubbles at this point. I have to agree with AA that being stubborn is stupid; or, as I've said, the definition of insanity is continuing to do the same thing and expecting different results. Sometimes, looking at the monthly chart is of benefit. I wish I wasn't so techno retarded and could simply post a chart, but ... If we use a lower trend line connecting the dots at the bottom of 9/99, 10/99, 3/00 and 10/01, we find that we went below it in 9/01, last month and this month, but the short term result in each case was a big move to the upward direction in a downward moving market. That said, I've got the lower line at ~8233 and as long as we hold this level, the lower line is in play. We are currently in the second longest decline in terms of both market direction and time in the last century. The upper line connects the highs of 1/00, 8/00, 3/01, 2/02 and 6/02. Those dots suggests a much higher move is available on the horizon, some 9850. That said, I've got the daily close right below the down trend line from 5/17. Therefore, the next few days will be key to the breakout. Moreover, a possible wave 1 = 3 + 5 would suggest that we run into problems about 8835. Since I've been stubborn and insane, I'd like to see us clear this level before I get excited. Just A View from the Fox, Berney