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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (6711)	8/15/2002 6:00:22 AM
From: Yorikke	Respond to of 33421

There was a time, not to long ago when anyone saying that an 'e' company was a questionable investment would be hooted at. Then it was the tech''s, telecoms, and financial firms. Reits are riding on the last surges of the investment economy. There is a cycle in real estate, and this one, like all the other markets, has been quite extraordinary. Buying reits now seems to me like buying into a pre-bubble collapse sector just at the top of the market. Better to look at hard industry, or metals, or any other industry that does not have itself leveraged to the hilt. I was in LA when that market last collapsed and it was almost overnight. Suddenly the money was gone, the buyers were gone, the signs were up all over the place and people were shocked by what they were stuck with. The movin on up era suddenly became the move in the middle of the nightmare and give the house to the bank era. The speed with which the real estate market can collapse can be frightening. It would be interesting to see what reits that have concentrated on office space in large metropolitan areas are doing at the moment. That sector's moves usually foreshadow the housing market events.

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (6711)	8/21/2002 2:26:58 AM
From: Yorikke	Respond to of 33421

Office availability nationwide... From [ yesterday’s ]American Banker (Robert Julavits): “[Office] vacancy rates and available sublease space are approaching record highs from Atlanta to San Francisco, according to several reports, and nationwide, supply still vastly exceeds demand.. In 1999 and 2000 you couldn’t build enough office space...but a lot of the space was never occupied,’ and most of that new space has been put back on the market in the past year. PNC said in a report released Wednesday that it found close to 142 million square feet of sublease office space, making up 24% of all vacant office property.” Dallas/Fort Worth second-quarter office vacancy rates were estimated at 25.5%, with 19% in Atlanta, 18.4% in Denver, 18.4% in San Francisco, 18.9% in San Jose, and 19.6% in Salt Lake City. prudentbear.com