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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gottfried who wrote (4929)8/15/2002 6:30:27 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95456
 
From Briefing.com: 4:56PM NVIDIA (NVDA) 10.29 +0.67: -- Correction -- In our 16:31 comment, we reported that NVDA missed estimates; in fact, the $0.03 EPS figure was better than the preannounced breakeven estimate - both of which included an inventory writedown. Consensus estimates appeared to exclude that writedown, and NVDA did not provide an EPS figure which was comparable.

4:31PM NVIDIA reports EPS of $0.03 (NVDA) 10.29 +0.67: Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.03 per share including inventory writedowns, which was a bit better than their July 30 preannouncement of roughly breakeven including the writedowns. Revenues rose 64.4% year/year to $427.3 mln vs the $419.3 mln consensus, and preannounced range of $410-430 mln.

4:10PM Analog Devices matches estimates; updates guidance (ADI) 24.00 +0.62: Reports Q3 (Jul) earnings of $0.15 per share, in line with the Multex consensus of $0.15; revenues fell 7.2% year/year to $445.4 mln vs the $440.5 mln consensus; sees Q4 earnings of "approximately $0.16 per share" vs the current consensus estimate of $0.18 per share.

4:09PM Dell Computer issues Q3 guidance (DELL) 27.14 -0.01: -- Update -- Co expects Q3 EPS to be $0.20-$0.21 on revenue of $8.9 bln, vs consensus of $0.20 and $8.59 bln; industry shipments should be flat to up slightly from Q2 to Q3, and volumes could increase more than 5% sequentially.

4:05PM Dell Computer meets consensus (DELL) 27.14 -0.01: -- Update -- Co reports Q2 EPS of $0.19, in line with the Multex consensus; revs were $8.46 bln, vs consensus of $8.29 bln

3:18PM Cree, Inc. (CREE) 14.95 +0.57: The company formerly known as Cree Research -- and now known more succinctly as Cree, Inc. -- is solidly higher this afternoon with the broader markets flat. From the standpoint of what the company does, Cree may have made the material that generates the dashboard display in your car. If not, they might have made the material that generates your cell phone display. Or it's possible absolutely nothing you own has been manufactured by the semiconductor company. Regardless, Cree's primary revenue stream is derived from selling blue and green light-emitting diodes (LED's) manufactured from silicon carbide (SiC). While it may not sound all that interesting, Cree has a solid market position as it has patents on many of its processes for SiC compounds. Fundamentally, the shares currently trade at 73.5x trailing-twelve-month earnings and carry a forward multiple of approximately 29.5x. By way of comparison, the five-year bands on its P/E multiple range from a low of 24.3x to a high of 233.6x. While current prices may not come off as a screaming value, keep in mind the company just reported fourth quarter sequential revenue growth of 13%, and is targeting another 20% in sequential growth for its fiscal first quarter. Management also expects margins to continue to improve as a result of market share gains as well as increasing LED demand. Yet the thing about Cree that really drew our attention, was its relative strength from a technical perspective. A look at its three-month chart illustrates its recent strength well. Despite severe weakness in the broader markets, Cree has managed to maintain a posture above both its 50-day simple moving average and its 20-day exponential moving average. On a clean break of modest resistance around 16.00, the intermediate-term swing target falls somewhere in the area of 19.00. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com

2:56PM Brocade (BRCD) 16.11 +1.06: Co met consensus est of $0.08 and maintained Q4 guidance of $0.10 on growth in all segments of its OEM business; analysts continue to favor BRCD as a top pick in the storage networking space. Lehman Brothers believes co's solid Q2 underscores increased traction for the SilkWorm 12000 within the installed base as well as growth from entry-level 8-port switches; raises Q4 ests. Goldman Sachs's Laura Conigliaro concludes "BRCD remains arguably the best demand-driven story in tech" and maintains her Recommended List rating. Merrill Lynch remains bullish on the stock (with a near-term Buy rating) but names weak IT spending as a risk to growth .. stock advances 7%.

2:19PM Nasdaq Composite on the mend : -- Technical -- The index has improved in recent trade after holding at support in the 1322/1320 area. Late rallies, except for the Fed related disappointment last Tuesday, have been the norm of late and as long as support at 1332/1330 holds firm, will be looking for a run through the highs. Next resistances are at 1354/1356 (intraday recovery high/top of July 19 gap) followed by 1370/1373 and 1382 (50 day sma)

2:09PM Photronics (PLAB) 11.10 +0.75: After lowering expectations for Q3 (to a loss of $0.01 to $0.01 profit vs. consensus at a profit of $0.13), co came in a penny ahead of consensus est at a profit of $0.01; analysts remain cautious on PLAB naming ltd visibility and weak IT spending as reasons. SG Cowen predicts their 2003 EPS est could come down to $0.40-0.45 from $0.63 given weak industry outlook and pricing pressure at the trailing edge masks. UBS Warburg notes PLAB's customers have slowed the rate of new design introductions, resulting in reduced demand for photomasks. Soundview maintains their Neutral rating but stipulates they remain encouraged by co's ability to cut costs; notes stock is at a five-year low.

1:37PM NVIDIA appoints new CFO (NVDA) 10.04 +0.42: Company announces it has named Marvin (Marv) D. Burkett as Chief Financial Officer.

10:20AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : Group weakened after the initial flurry of buying with semi equip pressured. However, has recently pushed to fresh highs on the back of gains in LSCC +4.8%, ALTR +6.5%, MU +4.1% and XLNX +4.2%. Next resistance is at 330 (38% retrace of July/Aug slide) with a secondary barrier in the 333.50 area (trendline off May/July highs). On a closing basis looking for a finish above the 20 day ema (327.24)

10:24AM Brocade Communications (BRCD) 15.91 +0.86: With the broader markets holding modestly lower this morning, names in the storage sector are largely higher. A well received third quarter report from Brocade Communications has contributed to the positive bias. Last night, the company reported third quarter earnings of $0.08 per share, which was in line with the Multex consensus estimate. At the same time, revenues came in at $151.2 million for the quarter, an increase of 30% over the $116.3 million reported in the year-ago period. While management did not guide higher going forward, it did reiterate its prior fourth quarter guidance. Specifically, it sees revenues between $160-165 million, gross margins in the ballpark of 60%, and projects earnings of $0.10 per share -- those numbers essentially match current consensus estimates (hence the term 'reiteration') which call for earnings of $0.10 per share on revenues of $162.8 million. It's notable that the company was successful in driving sales towards the high-end and workgroup segments of the market. In fact, with its push towards the high-end, software grew to 15% of sales, providing support for its fat 60% gross margins. Separately, management stated it experienced sequential growth across all OEM's and added that the quarter was not back-end loaded. The storage area network (00C) market is projected to be as large as $10 billion by 2004, and Brocade believes it can retain, if not grow, its market lead. This means the real question becomes one of valuation -- the shares currently trade at 31.8x forward estimates. With a market leading position in a rapidly growing market, Brocade undoubtedly deserves a premium multiple. As the economy does begin to recover and as IT spending picks up -- you have to ask yourself whether that spending is going to spring up in the same spots, or whether the real ramp will occur in new places. We believe that Brocade is well positioned going forward and operates in an industry situated for significant growth going forward. As a consequence, we view the shares as attractive at current levels and view it as particularly suitable for longer-term investors willing to undertake the relative risk of this fluid technology. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com

9:10AM Stocks to Watch : The futures are pointing to a higher open, building upon yesterday's rally into the close... Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 14.63) gets upgraded at Lehman based on valuation and the belief that U.S. enterprise demand is stabilizing. Firm also says inventory concerns are overstated and ups the price target to $18 from $16... Goldman Sachs downgrades EMC Corp (EMC 7.19) and Sun Micro (SUNW 4.44) saying it is no longer realistic to presume that the companies will rebound faster than others...

8:31AM Hewlett-Packard upgraded at Lehman (HPQ) 14.63: Lehman upgrades to EQUAL-WEIGHT from Underweight based on valuation and the belief that U.S. enterprise demand is stabilizing; says inventory concerns are overstated and strong demand in printing revs is offsetting some of the computing weakness in Q2, which firm believes is the bottom for revs and EPS; cuts FY02 est to $0.70 from $0.75 and FY03 to $1.05 from $1.15 (both well below consensus), and raises price target to $18 from $16. In addition, firm raises their Computer Hardware group weighting to Neutral from Negative.

7:45AM EMC, Sun downgraded at Goldman Sachs : Goldman Sachs downgrades EMC and SUNW to MKT OUTPERFORM from Recommended List, saying it is no longer realistic to presume that the co's will rebound faster than others, particularly given the lack of improvement in near-term IT spending environment; cuts 2003 rev est as well as 3-year rev growth targets.

finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC+^VIX&d=t

Thanks for your explanations on expectations last night as well as the BP updates etc...

RtS