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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (38057)	8/16/2002 1:47:45 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Hawkmoon; Re: "There are millions of muslim youth coming to the age of majority over the next decade or two." This is true, though I think you're exaggerating the consequences. There are billions of non muslim youth coming to the age of majority over the next few decades. Re: "And their hearts and minds are up for grabs, either by the west, or by Islamic extremists." This is true, but your technique of converting them with bullets is hopeless. The proper way to convert them is to do the same thing we did to convert the youth of Iran, who are now giving the government there so much trouble. In other words, our most optimal interaction with the Middle East is to leave it alone. Our way of life is the most attractive one, and in the complete absence of military operations, it is the one that people in the Middle East will find most attractive. The one way that a dictatorship best unites its people is by war. We don't have to give them one. We can instead simply wait them out, and they will drop like ripe fruits into our hands, when the time is right. Until then, we have to make sure that no single country takes control of all the oil, or beats up its neighbors. But the way to do that is to push them out when they are the obvious aggressor. That will help us to win converts to our way of thinking, because the US will be liberators cheered by the people. The alternative way, to suppress the area so that no aggression is possible, makes us into aggressors instead of liberators, and turns off their youth from following our path. -- Carl

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (38057)	8/17/2002 9:51:17 PM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

There are millions of muslim youth coming to the age of majority over the next decade or two. And their hearts and minds are up for grabs, either by the west, or by Islamic extremists.... But now there is a potential for the demographics of the region to create major instability throughout the region, and the world (via terrorism). This is true. It is by no means clear, though, that invading countries and toppling governments is the most effective way to deal with this problem. There is no doubt about it, US military forces can defeat the armies of the nations in question, individually or collectively, at any time. Unfortunately, it is not their armies that threaten us. We can easily install new governments in these countries. It will be much more difficult to install stable governments capable of sustaining themselves without constant US support. We cannot sustain an indefinite military occupation of the entire Islamic world, or even a significant portion of it. An occupying army is highly vulnerable to terrorist attack and intifadeh-style resistance. We cannot afford to get involved in this sort of situation. Even if we do install cooperative governments, it is not clear that we will be able to uproot Islamic fundamentalism. We have to be clear about who our primary enemy is. It is not armies, or governments. It is a network of religious fundamentalists and their followers, a network spread among a number of nations, some of which support it, many of which do not. That network is quite capable of flourishing and of attacking us without the support of any state or any army. It's not an easy problem to deal with, nothing so simple as going up against a dictator with an army. Dealing with it requires a subtle, intelligent, long-term strategy, not just wild thrashing about with a big stick.