Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: langj who wrote (50266)	8/15/2002 10:47:29 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

Hi langj- It's not surprising that you're getting such dismissive answers to your (well-considered) questions about the similarities between the Japanese post-bubble economy and our current environment. Many "authorities" simply hope it is not possilbe that the two are related! I (and others, notably Steven Roach) agree that current consumption patterns are being sustained through bubble-like credit growth in the residential real estate sector, and that this growth is unsustainable (as was the case in Japan in the late 80's and 90's). History suggests that real estate bubbles tend to lag equity bubbles (at least in the U.S. experience) by 2-3 years. If so, we are nearing the peak right now. Greenspan has a powerful interest in maintaining the bubble until he retires, otherwise he will clearly be labeled as the architect for the financial disaster that ensued by even the dimmest analysts. For an excellent guide to the Japanese experience, check out this link (stats on real estate values are on pages 52-54 of the PDF, I believe): imes.boj.or.jp This is the Bank of Japan's post-mortem study on their own bubble, and it is excellent (and underread in the West, I'm afraid...) Regards Patron