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To: TimbaBear who wrote (15220)8/16/2002 2:50:44 AM
From: Paul Senior  Respond to of 78714
 
Very nice cash flow analysis, TimbaBear!



To: TimbaBear who wrote (15220)8/16/2002 8:18:36 AM
From: Rock  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78714
 
Timba,

Really nice and detailed work! Having seen your effort, I feel a little bad for having put INTC out there for your consideration but the benefits (for me and the thread) outweigh my guilt... many thanks.



To: TimbaBear who wrote (15220)8/17/2002 2:47:28 AM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 78714
 
Timba Bear, your analyses of DELL and INTC are masterpieces and everyone that invests should read them. But I don't see the conclusion that the bear market will continue to claw, i.e. the general market will drop lots further. Why should your conclusions about stocks which were prominent players in the tech bubble apply to, just for example, Wells Fargo Bank? It certainly looks like the tech stocks should drop much much further. But even there, the CEOs can save the situation if most of the stockholders are getting to understand matters. They can simply take cognizance of the fact that engineers nowadays are quite happy to stay with companies like DELL and INTC without any stock options, just with their good salaries. So the granting of stock options, even to management, could simply cease for a long while until the public goes back to sleep. This would have the effect of multiplying the true earnings by a big factor. Instantly Dell and Intc would become much more reasonable investments.
Another point. Stock options are just one of the ways to deceive. Basically I think we have to look at the whole society to see to what extent honesty is insisted upon. Of course no country is perfect but I personally would give the Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands the highest marks in that regard. After that I would place the U.S. and slightly under the U.S. comes Canada. I'm not sure where to place the UK but I'm certain that Japan should be at the bottom of the industrialized countries because democracy there is still nascent. Stock options in Japan are still rare; outright deceit is common. A company there can report good earnings and at the same time have a subsidiary to which it is secretly lending huge sums for speculations. When the speculations collapse so does the main company, very suddenly. It's a common pattern. We've been talking about numbers; there is also attitude. When reading the annual report do you get the sense that the company is incomparably great, well nigh perfect --- is it a paean of self praise? If so then you don't have to bother analyzing the numbers. Sober honesty and the surrounding regulatory and societal attitudes are as important as the numbers, which is saying a lot.



To: TimbaBear who wrote (15220)8/17/2002 9:21:59 AM
From: j g cordes  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78714
 
Timba, enjoyed your Intel analysis.. although I was surprized to find terms like "smell" and sainthood in the summary.

The only thing missing for me, is price evaluation? Given your analysis of its stock options and accounting, at what price is Intel an agressive buy, at what price is it fairly valued, at what price is it over valued and given the current environment it competes in..what are its long term prospects as an investment within that envelope of possibilities?

This seems to be as much a commentary on speculators and insiders taking profits? If that's so I'd suggest you construct two columns of numbers to support that thesis.. the first column current valuations and the second identical column with stock option payouts plowed back into the company (or never taken out, or lets just say left as cash at CD rates).. what would be the stock price be? To make the stock options argument this would be a better course of reasoning.

Jim